lol
It is probably gonna be a blowout. Boring as that is.
Most of the polls for Hillary were manufacturing consent, and they were all pre Comey letter. Day of the election, 538 had Trump had a 30% of victory. Which is like rolling a dice and winning on a 1 or 2. Really wasn't that unlikely. And she still did win the popular vote by the margins the polls said she would.
The situation now is incomparable. No president has ever won reelection under these conditions.
The only way I could see them doing it is if they just cheat, way harder than they did in 2000.
I agree with you on most of your assessments, but I 100% expect them to cheat way harder than in 2000
It's not that easy to steal an election though.
If it's somewhat close, you can fudge the numbers and pull a 2000.
But if it's a blowout, how do you do that? Not saying they won't try, but how do they get away with it?
The military has said they won't intervene if he refuses to vacate. But how do you hold that position? It's pretty weak. It requires everyone around you to just back you even though you're a loser, and for your opponents to just fold with the entire establishment behind them.
That's not impossible, but I put it at like sub 5% chance.
You're forgetting that the antecedent of "your opponents" is "the Democratic Party".
I mean you got me there, and clearly they were trying to lose by picking Biden.
But it seems like they're gonna fail at even that. I don't know how you could lose at this point. Voting has already started. I don't think there's gonna be a big change in opinion in two weeks.
Trump just fucked this up too badly. I think as soon as he got corona, it was over for him.
they don’t have to be, this country is infinitely more stupid and weighted on their favor now.
It gets harder when you need to mess with several states
No, a blowout is more fun than "nobody knows who won" or "were pretending nobody knows who won" and now it looks like a Trump blowout is impossible, so a Biden blowout is the funniest possible future.
I look forward to absolutely denigrating Biden to the CHUDs, begging them to explain how their pathetic cuck president lost to literally the second-worst democratic candidate in American history.
You have terminal liberal brainworms if you think the polls were manufacturing consent for Hillary and magically are not for Biden. Doubly bad considering that you think "Trump can only win if he cheats!"
No, he has a point. Five Thirty Eight ran articles all through 2016 pointing out how the polls were really not a good reflection of reality for Clinton. She truly had a slim lead, but the mainstream media wasn't saying that.
Biden's lead is bigger, whether we want to acknowledge that or not. He is still disliked by the common person, but he don't have the baggage that Hillary has. One thing that is really hurting Trump's chances has been his response to the pandemic. In a regular election season, the polls would be much tighter and he'd be looking at a win. But the pandemic has changed all of that for him and it's really the only reason Biden is looking to cruise to an easy victory.
Biden is up more or less the same as Hillary was in mid-October. The idea that the Comey letter actually changed anyone's mind is laughable cope that the pollsters used to save face.
The Dems playbook in the time of Trump is to passive-aggressively ignore anyone they don't like, and just hope that lack of attention means no one votes for them. They did it with Bernie the entire primary cycle, and they're doing it with Trump as well.
Biden is up more or less the same as Hillary was in mid-October. The idea that the Comey letter actually changed anyone’s mind is laughable cope that the pollsters used to save face.
No, he's not. He's up even more so than Hillary was. Have you seen polls per state? Biden leads Trump in Georgia of all places. A state he hasn't stepped foot in. Clinton tied Trump in Georgia around the summer of 2016 and went on to lose by less than 5 points.
Whether we want to acknowledge it or not, Biden is doing a lot better than Hillary was. The pandemic has changed everything. I have zero doubt that in a regular election season, Trump would've went around doing rallies everywhere while Biden was locked in the basement and only coming out every now and then to say some WTF off the wall racist stuff about black people and it would've sunk him. But the pandemic has changed everything and Trump's poor response of it, has played into Dems favor.
If you believe Biden has a chance in Georgia, there's just no communicating reality. Polls like that should trigger alarm bells in your mind that "these are all being manipulated", not "wow, Orange Man is finished!!"
No, you're in denial of reality.
I admit the brainworms kept me from thinking Trump could ever possibly win in 2016, but I distinctly remember the moment in the lead up to the election when I looked at all the polls coming out and realized just how razor thin the margin could be and started chickening out of my initial choice to write in Bernie.
People trying to suggest this situation is the same as 2016 are forgetting just what a roller-coaster the 2016 election was and are ultimately just desperate for the Libs to eat shit again. That's understandable given the fact that they basically told us all to fuck off....but the sad frustrating reality you're going to have to face come November is that putting aside some cataclysmic next level fuckery between now and then they're going to get away with it.
People here don't understand that the entire media apparatus fucking DESPISES Trump. That's the reason he's so hated. If Trump were like Reagan or Bush and sucked off reporters, they would love him. It has nothing to do with policy or reality. The media is full of snivelling pansies who think that if they just ignore the Bad Man who bullies them, he will go away.
People here don’t understand that the entire media apparatus fucking DESPISES Trump. That’s the reason he’s so hated. If Trump were like Reagan or Bush and sucked off reporters, they would love him. It has nothing to do with policy or reality. The media is full of snivelling pansies who think that if they just ignore the Bad Man who bullies them, he will go away.
Who here doesn't get that?
Unless you want to argue that they're literally just making up polling data and pulling numbers from air that still doesn't change the reality of the situation. Like Ohwell said: in a year without a pandemic and the catastrophic economic impact I completely agree this year would look a hell of a lot more like 2016....but that's completely hypothetical and not in line with the actually reality we live in.
The "catastrophic" economic impact is vastly, vastly overblown by the Left. Plus, Biden is supposedly ahead because of well-off suburban whites, who definitely have not suffered a "catastrophic" economic impact in the past 6 months.
The polling data that's gets published is completely non-sensical and often contradictory. Public polls aren't completely fabricated, bit the thumbs are on the scales and they are push polls, not reflective of reality. Their purpose is to make useful idiots like the people on this board strike and riot if Biden loses because Trump "obviously" cheated. It's just bet hedging.
There’s been like a thousand evictions, in my city alone, since this shit started and the largest public school system in my city counted 13,000 homeless children. PLEASE SHUT THE FUCK UP.
There were evictions PRE PANDEMIC. This is not a NEW issue!
Those people blame "Democrat governors" if they blame anyone at all. Plus again, actual, REAL material conditions have not degraded.
Every time that the MSM says that's it's OK to talk about inequality, the Left naively sees it as an opportunity to bring up already existing structural inequalities and act like they are brand new problems that are rapidly getting worse. Then nothing changes and they wonder why.
There were evictions PRE PANDEMIC. This is not a NEW issue!
Ok, for the sake of argument let's just say that's true.
..........AAAAAANNNNNNDDDDD?????
This is like pointing out that "welll acccctuuuuuaaaaallllllly we lost glass-steagall during the clinton administration so really its HIS fault!!!"
Even by your own logic the average voter DOESN'T FUCKING CARE. The only thing they ask themselves is "Is my life ok...or is it shit right now? Oh yeah, definitely shit....who's president? Yeah...fuck that guy!!!!"
any eviction is an issue, and finalizing the paperwork and sending it to court where it gets rubberstamp during the pandemic IS an issue.
How has a the pandemic made this worse? Has there been an increase compared to 1 or 2 years ago? Were evictions not just rubber-stamped before?
Holy shit are you out of your fucking mind?
Yes, it's increased by like 1000%.
This may be hard for you to believe, but illegal or "encouraged" evictions are happening fucking everywhere. Trump's decree is a fucking piece of paper.
There is a massive, unprecedented, unreported eviction crisis in every major American city. Completely unprecedented by anything for nearly a century.
There is a massive, unprecedented, unreported eviction crisis in every major American city.
Where is the actual proof? This is about as reliable as stating "there is a massive, satanic child molestation cult in every major American city"
bro shut your ass up people are getting thrown out of their houses and losing their jobs (and with it, their health insurance) enmasse, it's not "overblown by the left"
Things have gotten Better during the Pandemic due to eviction protections and the lifeline of the $600 checks. Those people were vulnerable pre-pandemic, and they remain a small minority. The idea that material conditions have actually gotten worse is a massive blind spot on the Left and just this insane delusion that gets repeated like a mantra with no real basis
Hey, let me get one of those 600 dollar checks real quick.
Oh wait I'm ineligible
Dude. Shut the fuck up. I lost my job and had to move back with my parents, a privilege which a LOT of people in my situation DO NOT HAVE. Everyone I knew from work who I still keep up with is struggling in some way because of this too.
Please for the love of god eat a massive chode
$600 a week plus unemployment means you either made well over $60k a year if losing your job meant you had to move back home, or you made less than that and actually got a bonus.
What did you do with your $15,000?
I got one check for 1200 back in March and haven't recieved anything else since.
We're near Depression era economic conditions.
There's fucking tent cities up and down every block here, from people with mattress pads and lamps (ie, people who were not homeless before this and were decently working class.)
I was willing to entertain your position because I'm sympathetic to the idea that Biden has a manufactured lead, but you are actually fucking stupid if you believe what you're saying right now.
We’re near Depression era economic conditions
This is flat out fucking delusion driven by media hysteria and America's collective lack of memory. It's fucking shameful to watch the "materialists" bleat out just absolutely insane views of reality.
The actual unemployment rate is near 20%. I don't know how you can believe that the entire media can be manufacturing consent for Biden, but isn't doing so for the state of the economy.
We're like in mid crash '29 right now. Things are just getting started. But they're already very fucking bad, and you're just completely out of touch if you think otherwise.
Why would the media be defending the economy? They want people to think it's bad so Biden will ein
If it hasn't touched you, it's hard to see it happening.
Too big and too slow. Why we have such a problem with idiots and masks too.
Consumer spending is up!
I go outside everyday, and I see zero signs of the "economic devastation" or a "catastrophe"
Consumer spending is up!
I can't speak for anyone else but I've been spending money stupidly because I'm depressed and looking for anything to distract me.
Like 5 businesses closed their storefronts on main street in my liberal, upper-middle-class town.
No business closures in my working-class urban neighborhood
Not sure if this puts us in the Great Depression per se, but according to this article, huge numbers of people are either not paying rent, or are putting their rent on credit cards, at the least. The article quotes a rental payment processor company called Avail as saying that only 55% of landlords using their service received payments in full in July. This article says that 32% of households did not completely pay their housing payment in July, which is apparently a record, and the third month in a row in which the previous record was broken.
Another important point to note is that undocumented people do not receive the Bernie Bucks, nor did they get stimulus checks. Likewise for unhoused people.
Unemployment is insanely high as well - though the $600/week payments has helped a lot of people, that benefit has expired now, so we'll see what happens next. This wound-lick of a welfare plan kept a lot of us from penury for a while, I'll admit - my income shrank by only about 10%, which is amazing considering I went from working 40-45 hours/week to 13-20/week. Again, without that added benefit, a lot of people are gonna get fucked, which is going to drive down aggregate demand and further depress the economy. (Welfare is good folks, whodda thunk?)
I imagine the medical debt from covid hospitalizations is going to really fuck some people over, too, though I don't know the numbers on that.
Anyway, you wanted a material analysis, so here it is.
The “catastrophic” economic impact is vastly, vastly overblown by the Left. Plus, Biden is supposedly ahead because of well-off suburban whites, who definitely have not suffered a “catastrophic” economic impact in the past 6 months.
Last I checked the **only ** demographic Trump was leading in was older white men without a college degree. You can argue semantics over the use of the word "catastrophic" but even well-off suburban whites who have maintained employment through this thing have still felt the impact....and given how spoiled they are any drop in their standard of living is viewed by them as "catastrophic". I know a ton of them who have been forced to take massive pay cuts...and trust me...they ain't too happy about that.
And yeah...no. There's a distinction between manufacturing consent and just making shit up in the same way there's a difference between manipulating an election and outright electoral fraud.
Don't know why you're laughing. Polls might've been insane dogshit but it's 70/30 Biden right now.
Trump needs to win every remaining uncalled state. Biden only needs to win one.
It's not impossible for Trump, but it's not very likely.
Trump's cheat scenario isn't likely either, because it was predicated on the idea that the vote had to be arbitrarily stopped if it was taking too long. But if they stop now, he loses. Ditto to some earlier point yesterday.
I'm laughing because it wasn't a blowout and the polls were significantly off, yet again.
Yeah for sure.
Maybe all the failsons run Quinnipiac now. I dunno.
I heard that they were still doing insane shit like still calling landlines only. But I figured polls were important enough to the ruling class that they would escape neoliberal hollowing out.
That does not appear to be the case.
Remember like a week before Bernie ate shit, 538 was predicting he would sweep 45 states? None of this shit has any verifiable accuracy until like the day before the election. Not saying Trump is gonna win, he probably isn't, but all these percentages are most likely bullshit.
Bernie probably would have cleaned up, except for the big DNC ratfucking that occurred the weekend before Super Tuesday. No statistical model is gonna predict that kind of thing, just like it couldn't predict the Comey letter. Every model---for elections or otherwise---has its limitations and one must keep those in mind when using the model.
Yeah, that's my point. Doing any kind of statistical modeling this far out is meaningless. The only numbers that are in any way falsifiable are the numbers the model spits out right before the election happens.
Ah! You claim to ignore the models, and yet, in this very thread,,
And I would have gotten away with it too, if it weren't for you meddling redditors!
Difference was that Obama saw the polls and called every neolib to force them to drop out right before Super Tuesday. Obama's gonna have a harder time twisting the arms of Howie, La Riva, and JoJo.
Meanwhile the Hunter Biden October surprise has gone over like a lead balloon. It has none of the staying power of buttery males and the FBI isn't going to announce an investigation until after the election this time.
To be fair, Howie, La Riva and Jojo are going to have essentially no impact on this election. As much as I hate to say it, especially La Riva.
I don't remember the exact number of states, but I distinctly remember a time between New Hampshire and Nevada where they were predicting a Bernie win in a very large majority of states. My point being that they were saying he was going to absolutely crush it. Sorry, should have looked up the exact number.
The confusion is that he was predicted relatively narrow victories in a lot of those states. Saying he's a narrow favourite in 45 (or however many) states is very different from predicting that he's likely to sweep 45 states. If I play a game where I roll a die and win with a roll of 3 or higher, I'm a narrow favourite to win each roll. But if I roll it 45 times I'm extremely unlikely to win every one.
Oh ok, I guess I used the word sweep incorrectly then. I didn't mean he would massively win each one. But overall, the point I'm trying to make is Bernie was predicted to pick up a massive delegate lead over Biden, and the only worry was that he might not have been able to reach 50 percent needed to avoid a contested convention. My point is that this is massively different from the actual outcome.
That's fair enough. On the other hand I remember discussing with a lot of people who thought Pete, Amy or Kamala had some kind of chance, and 538's analysis was extremely helpful in understanding that it was really between Biden and Bernie. It was also thanks to 538 that I already knew that SC was going to be critical and that people high on the Nevada victory treating it as unimportant were mistaken.
Of course 538 didn't predict the orchestrated drop outs, but that's not really the purpose of a model like that, and when they hapened my reaction wasn't "Why didn't Nate Silver tell me about this?!"
Oh for sure, I'm not trying to say the model should have predicted the drop outs. What I'm trying to say is that a model that only uses polls and demographics data to predict the outcome to an election several weeks or more in advance is fundamentally useless precisely because it can't account for things like orchestrated drop outs or buttery males. And also because any prediction made too far away from the date of the election is just unfalsifiable.
For example, what if the model had shown Bernie falling to a 5 percent chance of victory like a year out from the start of voting. What if this then rose back up to something more in line with contemporary polling data by the time voting actually started? Since there is no actual vote a year out from the election, there is no way to actually know if any of that spike corresponded to reality. This line of reasoning has also made me skeptical of polls conducted far out from the date of an election as well. Who's to say primary polls in January of 2019 were actually accurate representations of the electorate? If they were cooked, there would be no way to know because the actual election would still be a year away.
Yes, that I agree with. If you're looking at the 538 model 6 months out you should look at its previous predictions 6 months out to see how confident to be in its predictions (or maybe even look at its worst prediction at 6 months out or less for each election).
But basically yes, far enough from an election its silly to pay much attention to polls or models. But we're actually getting pretty close to the presidential election now!
It did. At one point before SC it said he'd win every single state, including SC.
The models are only as good as the inputs. The inputs are polls, and polling is restricted to a handful of outlets . Anyone who thinks that the polls aren't being insanely gamed is just naive. There is no clearly defined data that can be used to make these predictions like there was in 2008 or 2012.
Reminder that in 2018, people predicted that Dems would certainly take the Senate and win governorships in Florida, Georgia.
Five Thirty Eight never gave Sanders good chances. They always had Biden ahead of him, even after his win at Nevada.
They underrated him all the way up until voting began, but after the polls showed Biden collapsing after losing Iowa, the 538 model gave Bernie the highest chance of winning the most delegates.
and prior to that, he had low chances. Five Thirty Eight were constantly talking about how Sanders didn't have the backing of the party and that it would come back to bite him in the ass. I'd say they were proven correct. They were calling Biden months before the primary happened as the one candidate most likely to get the party behind them.
Yeah, they called that Biden was definitely the most likely to have the primary rigged in his favor. But their model was absolutely garbage.
He is probably gonna win and pretending otherwise is a cope.
Joe Biden is going to be an atrocious president.
Hilary would have won if the election had taken place 3 weeks earlier
But Biden's lead now is bigger than Hilary's biggest lead, which shrunk from like 14 to 5 as election day came near
Biden is in much much better shape than Hilary
Many things about Trump remind me of :scared-fash: Sometimes, that makes me wonder if this will lead to :no-fash:
But if Trump won last time, why didn’t 538 give him a 99% probability???? /s
i just can't see him winning when the economy is got fucked under his watch and jobs continue to be outsourced. biden isn't nearly as hated as hillary so he should get more votes than her and trump should get less than he did in 2016. in particular, this should swing the rust belt and thus the election.
i try not to care, because i know that it ultimately doesn't matter (globally and for me personally. not like biden/trump is gonna fix climate change/lower rent), but damn do i still refresh 538. i'm broken comrades
It's a race, it's a contest, it's a show. People are regularly entertained by far worse things, such as 90 Day Fiancé or literally anything on the Bravo network.
This probably isn't a good place to seek help for that particular addiction.
Honestly I'm just super excited to see the few chuds I have as Facebook friends lose their fucking minds, and I like to have an estimate of the chance that happens.
Except that libs didn't understand that Trump had a higher chance than they gave him, because they're ignorant of how fascism spreads.
Follow 538 then. Trump had a 30% chance of winning last election day, currently it's 12%
Also the model had been modified this time. Earlier in the campaign Trump had a higher chance of winning despite consistently polling worse against Biden than Hillary. Polls can be wrong, predicting the future is difficult, and predicting a victor with America's electoral college is difficult, but it's kind of absurd to pretend this isn't a difference now vs 2016.
Yeah the polls are paying a lot more attention to education
And back four years ago, libs put out op eds and tweeted up a storm talking about how Silver's stats are so obviously off and he's not weighting his data correctly...
I was in between "Biden's really in the lead" and "Biden really has the lead."
Started with the former, then changed it to the latter, but missed a bit.
The biggest problem today imo is people still take the bourgeoisie's word for it. The system even says the electoral college (whos members are chosen by the bourgeois-controlled political parties) picks the president, not the popular vote which means the popular vote doesn't matter, it's a show to trick us into thinking we have a voice. We didn't learn this lesson in 2016, will we finally understand what a dictatorship of capital looks like when it crushes us into fascism in 2020??? I really don't know, I'm just so pissed off and disapointed in the people here I really am. I know Marxism isn't common knowledge but common sense is. If something doesn't work as advertized, and it even says on the back of the packaging that the advertising is a fucking lie and explains how it is...STOP BELIEVING THE LIE.
Months ago we've been telling them voting doesn't work in a democracy under a capitalist system, lots of people were getting the system is a lie but then fascism rolls up to the present primed to take it's throne and everyone throws out logic and says "iF wE vOtE wE'Ll bE sAvEd!" nevermind they are throwing their faith into the hands of the same bastards hellbent on eating us, just the ones still wearing smiley masks on (this includes some of us on here unfortunately) ...3 weeks from now better hit them like a sack of bricks because if a hell of a lot more people don't learn D&H materialism is the only way to view the world, centrism is a lie, capitalism is death, and communism is the only way forward we in the US won't exist much longer..unless China saves the day which could happen but it's the timing and it's still frustrating for someone like me who believed we'd respond to this threat as a people by tossing liberalism the fuck out the window months ago when their democracy was exposed as a fucking sham by failing to expell trump and friends from power or protecting innocent americans from the fascist police state but instead of breaking our collective chains and taking our destiny into our own hands we settled back into our stations and bent the knee to fear and delusions. ("It was china/russia, they rigged our elections..not the bourgeoisie or the DNC which is really just the bourgeoisie by proxy. The DNC never admitted to screwing Bernie in a NY court, that's a conspiracy theory."..ok radlib -.- and I'm Santa..call me Stoney Claws) Material reality will have no forgiveness to our reactionism; The bourgeoisie only have 1 option to repair this shit factory into working order and reclaim their #1 spot from China, fascism is coming and it doesn't fucking matter what it's wearing when it arrives on Nov 4th, all opposition to the crushing class contradictions will be crushed with a fist and the fake rainbow fist still kills us just as equally as the punisher skull painted one does.
Just venting..but go vote, it'll matter /s
unless China saves the day which could happen but it’s the timing and it’s still frustrating for someone like me who believed we’d respond to this threat as a people by tossing liberalism the fuck out the window months ago when their democracy was exposed as a fucking sham by failing to expell trump and friends from power or protecting innocent americans from the fascist police state but instead of breaking our collective chains and taking our destiny into our own hands we settled back into our stations and bent the knee to fear and delusions.
And how the fuck is China going to save you?
This site's obsession with China and trying to paint them out to be this communist utopia that they absolutely are not, is the most annoying thing on here.
Yeah like, I won't lie, I prefer them to the US. I think they're on a better trajectory and they're doing a version of capitalism that is more sustainable, better for more people, etc.
But they don't give a FUCK about your working class ass, they aren't really all that communist and they aren't interested in spreading the revolution. Notice how they support the state against the socialists in struggles all across Asia, from India to Bhutan to Nepal to the Philippines. Just like the US, they're near the head of the global capitalist machinery so it's in their interests to maintain that machinery.
It's really just a slightly more plausible version of "I support Comrade Assad in his struggle against reactionary western imperialism" thing. China aint your friend, at best they're doing a slightly less myopic and shortsighted version of capitalism in preparation for "something" later, at worst they're just another neoliberal oligarchy.
they’re doing a version of capitalism that is more sustainable
By being more oppressive?
Sure I guess, but the US can catch up in that department.
I'm deeply confused as to how you could read my comment and think that's what I meant
They're able to plan much farther ahead than western unregulated investor-driven capital is, and the CCP remaining in their position of supremacy over the oligarchs means they're held much more firmly to the law and to the expectation that they improve the country in some way.
the CCP remaining in their position of supremacy over the oligarchs
lol. idiots.
China recently told their military to prepare for war. Unrelated but still relivent is the 2020 military parade in the DPRK showed off some impressive firepower including the worlds largest ICBMs capable of reaching the US mainland. Comrades have never lost a war and the US has never won a war when going against China. Hope. It's not an obsession for me, I'm actually on the fence on China personally although I'm sure your observation excludes just me as your pool of experience
He's up 1%, so the margin of error for 2016 was just 42%.
