It is probably gonna be a blowout. Boring as that is.
Most of the polls for Hillary were manufacturing consent, and they were all pre Comey letter. Day of the election, 538 had Trump had a 30% of victory. Which is like rolling a dice and winning on a 1 or 2. Really wasn't that unlikely. And she still did win the popular vote by the margins the polls said she would.
The situation now is incomparable. No president has ever won reelection under these conditions.
The only way I could see them doing it is if they just cheat, way harder than they did in 2000.
If it's somewhat close, you can fudge the numbers and pull a 2000.
But if it's a blowout, how do you do that? Not saying they won't try, but how do they get away with it?
The military has said they won't intervene if he refuses to vacate. But how do you hold that position? It's pretty weak. It requires everyone around you to just back you even though you're a loser, and for your opponents to just fold with the entire establishment behind them.
That's not impossible, but I put it at like sub 5% chance.
I mean you got me there, and clearly they were trying to lose by picking Biden.
But it seems like they're gonna fail at even that. I don't know how you could lose at this point. Voting has already started. I don't think there's gonna be a big change in opinion in two weeks.
Trump just fucked this up too badly. I think as soon as he got corona, it was over for him.
No, a blowout is more fun than "nobody knows who won" or "were pretending nobody knows who won" and now it looks like a Trump blowout is impossible, so a Biden blowout is the funniest possible future.
I look forward to absolutely denigrating Biden to the CHUDs, begging them to explain how their pathetic cuck president lost to literally the second-worst democratic candidate in American history.
You have terminal liberal brainworms if you think the polls were manufacturing consent for Hillary and magically are not for Biden. Doubly bad considering that you think "Trump can only win if he cheats!"
No, he has a point. Five Thirty Eight ran articles all through 2016 pointing out how the polls were really not a good reflection of reality for Clinton. She truly had a slim lead, but the mainstream media wasn't saying that.
Biden's lead is bigger, whether we want to acknowledge that or not. He is still disliked by the common person, but he don't have the baggage that Hillary has. One thing that is really hurting Trump's chances has been his response to the pandemic. In a regular election season, the polls would be much tighter and he'd be looking at a win. But the pandemic has changed all of that for him and it's really the only reason Biden is looking to cruise to an easy victory.
Biden is up more or less the same as Hillary was in mid-October. The idea that the Comey letter actually changed anyone's mind is laughable cope that the pollsters used to save face.
The Dems playbook in the time of Trump is to passive-aggressively ignore anyone they don't like, and just hope that lack of attention means no one votes for them. They did it with Bernie the entire primary cycle, and they're doing it with Trump as well.
Biden is up more or less the same as Hillary was in mid-October. The idea that the Comey letter actually changed anyone’s mind is laughable cope that the pollsters used to save face.
No, he's not. He's up even more so than Hillary was. Have you seen polls per state? Biden leads Trump in Georgia of all places. A state he hasn't stepped foot in. Clinton tied Trump in Georgia around the summer of 2016 and went on to lose by less than 5 points.
Whether we want to acknowledge it or not, Biden is doing a lot better than Hillary was. The pandemic has changed everything. I have zero doubt that in a regular election season, Trump would've went around doing rallies everywhere while Biden was locked in the basement and only coming out every now and then to say some WTF off the wall racist stuff about black people and it would've sunk him. But the pandemic has changed everything and Trump's poor response of it, has played into Dems favor.
If you believe Biden has a chance in Georgia, there's just no communicating reality. Polls like that should trigger alarm bells in your mind that "these are all being manipulated", not "wow, Orange Man is finished!!"
I admit the brainworms kept me from thinking Trump could ever possibly win in 2016, but I distinctly remember the moment in the lead up to the election when I looked at all the polls coming out and realized just how razor thin the margin could be and started chickening out of my initial choice to write in Bernie.
People trying to suggest this situation is the same as 2016 are forgetting just what a roller-coaster the 2016 election was and are ultimately just desperate for the Libs to eat shit again. That's understandable given the fact that they basically told us all to fuck off....but the sad frustrating reality you're going to have to face come November is that putting aside some cataclysmic next level fuckery between now and then they're going to get away with it.
People here don't understand that the entire media apparatus fucking DESPISES Trump. That's the reason he's so hated. If Trump were like Reagan or Bush and sucked off reporters, they would love him. It has nothing to do with policy or reality. The media is full of snivelling pansies who think that if they just ignore the Bad Man who bullies them, he will go away.
People here don’t understand that the entire media apparatus fucking DESPISES Trump. That’s the reason he’s so hated. If Trump were like Reagan or Bush and sucked off reporters, they would love him. It has nothing to do with policy or reality. The media is full of snivelling pansies who think that if they just ignore the Bad Man who bullies them, he will go away.
Who here doesn't get that?
Unless you want to argue that they're literally just making up polling data and pulling numbers from air that still doesn't change the reality of the situation. Like Ohwell said: in a year without a pandemic and the catastrophic economic impact I completely agree this year would look a hell of a lot more like 2016....but that's completely hypothetical and not in line with the actually reality we live in.
The "catastrophic" economic impact is vastly, vastly overblown by the Left. Plus, Biden is supposedly ahead because of well-off suburban whites, who definitely have not suffered a "catastrophic" economic impact in the past 6 months.
The polling data that's gets published is completely non-sensical and often contradictory. Public polls aren't completely fabricated, bit the thumbs are on the scales and they are push polls, not reflective of reality. Their purpose is to make useful idiots like the people on this board strike and riot if Biden loses because Trump "obviously" cheated. It's just bet hedging.
bro shut your ass up people are getting thrown out of their houses and losing their jobs (and with it, their health insurance) enmasse, it's not "overblown by the left"
Things have gotten Better during the Pandemic due to eviction protections and the lifeline of the $600 checks. Those people were vulnerable pre-pandemic, and they remain a small minority. The idea that material conditions have actually gotten worse is a massive blind spot on the Left and just this insane delusion that gets repeated like a mantra with no real basis
Dude. Shut the fuck up. I lost my job and had to move back with my parents, a privilege which a LOT of people in my situation DO NOT HAVE. Everyone I knew from work who I still keep up with is struggling in some way because of this too.
$600 a week plus unemployment means you either made well over $60k a year if losing your job meant you had to move back home, or you made less than that and actually got a bonus.
There’s been like a thousand evictions, in my city alone, since this shit started and the largest public school system in my city counted 13,000 homeless children. PLEASE SHUT THE FUCK UP.
Those people blame "Democrat governors" if they blame anyone at all. Plus again, actual, REAL material conditions have not degraded.
Every time that the MSM says that's it's OK to talk about inequality, the Left naively sees it as an opportunity to bring up already existing structural inequalities and act like they are brand new problems that are rapidly getting worse. Then nothing changes and they wonder why.
There were evictions PRE PANDEMIC. This is not a NEW issue!
Ok, for the sake of argument let's just say that's true.
..........AAAAAANNNNNNDDDDD?????
This is like pointing out that "welll acccctuuuuuaaaaallllllly we lost glass-steagall during the clinton administration so really its HIS fault!!!"
Even by your own logic the average voter DOESN'T FUCKING CARE. The only thing they ask themselves is "Is my life ok...or is it shit right now? Oh yeah, definitely shit....who's president? Yeah...fuck that guy!!!!"
This may be hard for you to believe, but illegal or "encouraged" evictions are happening fucking everywhere. Trump's decree is a fucking piece of paper.
There is a massive, unprecedented, unreported eviction crisis in every major American city. Completely unprecedented by anything for nearly a century.
There's fucking tent cities up and down every block here, from people with mattress pads and lamps (ie, people who were not homeless before this and were decently working class.)
I was willing to entertain your position because I'm sympathetic to the idea that Biden has a manufactured lead, but you are actually fucking stupid if you believe what you're saying right now.
This is flat out fucking delusion driven by media hysteria and America's collective lack of memory. It's fucking shameful to watch the "materialists" bleat out just absolutely insane views of reality.
The actual unemployment rate is near 20%. I don't know how you can believe that the entire media can be manufacturing consent for Biden, but isn't doing so for the state of the economy.
We're like in mid crash '29 right now. Things are just getting started. But they're already very fucking bad, and you're just completely out of touch if you think otherwise.
Not sure if this puts us in the Great Depression per se, but according to this article, huge numbers of people are either not paying rent, or are putting their rent on credit cards, at the least. The article quotes a rental payment processor company called Avail as saying that only 55% of landlords using their service received payments in full in July. This article says that 32% of households did not completely pay their housing payment in July, which is apparently a record, and the third month in a row in which the previous record was broken.
Another important point to note is that undocumented people do not receive the Bernie Bucks, nor did they get stimulus checks. Likewise for unhoused people.
Unemployment is insanely high as well - though the $600/week payments has helped a lot of people, that benefit has expired now, so we'll see what happens next. This wound-lick of a welfare plan kept a lot of us from penury for a while, I'll admit - my income shrank by only about 10%, which is amazing considering I went from working 40-45 hours/week to 13-20/week. Again, without that added benefit, a lot of people are gonna get fucked, which is going to drive down aggregate demand and further depress the economy. (Welfare is good folks, whodda thunk?)
I imagine the medical debt from covid hospitalizations is going to really fuck some people over, too, though I don't know the numbers on that.
Anyway, you wanted a material analysis, so here it is.
The “catastrophic” economic impact is vastly, vastly overblown by the Left. Plus, Biden is supposedly ahead because of well-off suburban whites, who definitely have not suffered a “catastrophic” economic impact in the past 6 months.
Last I checked the **only ** demographic Trump was leading in was older white men without a college degree. You can argue semantics over the use of the word "catastrophic" but even well-off suburban whites who have maintained employment through this thing have still felt the impact....and given how spoiled they are any drop in their standard of living is viewed by them as "catastrophic". I know a ton of them who have been forced to take massive pay cuts...and trust me...they ain't too happy about that.
And yeah...no. There's a distinction between manufacturing consent and just making shit up in the same way there's a difference between manipulating an election and outright electoral fraud.
Don't know why you're laughing. Polls might've been insane dogshit but it's 70/30 Biden right now.
Trump needs to win every remaining uncalled state. Biden only needs to win one.
It's not impossible for Trump, but it's not very likely.
Trump's cheat scenario isn't likely either, because it was predicated on the idea that the vote had to be arbitrarily stopped if it was taking too long. But if they stop now, he loses. Ditto to some earlier point yesterday.
Maybe all the failsons run Quinnipiac now. I dunno.
I heard that they were still doing insane shit like still calling landlines only. But I figured polls were important enough to the ruling class that they would escape neoliberal hollowing out.
It is probably gonna be a blowout. Boring as that is.
Most of the polls for Hillary were manufacturing consent, and they were all pre Comey letter. Day of the election, 538 had Trump had a 30% of victory. Which is like rolling a dice and winning on a 1 or 2. Really wasn't that unlikely. And she still did win the popular vote by the margins the polls said she would.
The situation now is incomparable. No president has ever won reelection under these conditions.
The only way I could see them doing it is if they just cheat, way harder than they did in 2000.
I agree with you on most of your assessments, but I 100% expect them to cheat way harder than in 2000
It's not that easy to steal an election though.
If it's somewhat close, you can fudge the numbers and pull a 2000.
But if it's a blowout, how do you do that? Not saying they won't try, but how do they get away with it?
The military has said they won't intervene if he refuses to vacate. But how do you hold that position? It's pretty weak. It requires everyone around you to just back you even though you're a loser, and for your opponents to just fold with the entire establishment behind them.
That's not impossible, but I put it at like sub 5% chance.
You're forgetting that the antecedent of "your opponents" is "the Democratic Party".
I mean you got me there, and clearly they were trying to lose by picking Biden.
But it seems like they're gonna fail at even that. I don't know how you could lose at this point. Voting has already started. I don't think there's gonna be a big change in opinion in two weeks.
Trump just fucked this up too badly. I think as soon as he got corona, it was over for him.
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they don’t have to be, this country is infinitely more stupid and weighted on their favor now.
It gets harder when you need to mess with several states
No, a blowout is more fun than "nobody knows who won" or "were pretending nobody knows who won" and now it looks like a Trump blowout is impossible, so a Biden blowout is the funniest possible future.
I look forward to absolutely denigrating Biden to the CHUDs, begging them to explain how their pathetic cuck president lost to literally the second-worst democratic candidate in American history.
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You have terminal liberal brainworms if you think the polls were manufacturing consent for Hillary and magically are not for Biden. Doubly bad considering that you think "Trump can only win if he cheats!"
No, he has a point. Five Thirty Eight ran articles all through 2016 pointing out how the polls were really not a good reflection of reality for Clinton. She truly had a slim lead, but the mainstream media wasn't saying that.
Biden's lead is bigger, whether we want to acknowledge that or not. He is still disliked by the common person, but he don't have the baggage that Hillary has. One thing that is really hurting Trump's chances has been his response to the pandemic. In a regular election season, the polls would be much tighter and he'd be looking at a win. But the pandemic has changed all of that for him and it's really the only reason Biden is looking to cruise to an easy victory.
Biden is up more or less the same as Hillary was in mid-October. The idea that the Comey letter actually changed anyone's mind is laughable cope that the pollsters used to save face.
The Dems playbook in the time of Trump is to passive-aggressively ignore anyone they don't like, and just hope that lack of attention means no one votes for them. They did it with Bernie the entire primary cycle, and they're doing it with Trump as well.
No, he's not. He's up even more so than Hillary was. Have you seen polls per state? Biden leads Trump in Georgia of all places. A state he hasn't stepped foot in. Clinton tied Trump in Georgia around the summer of 2016 and went on to lose by less than 5 points.
Whether we want to acknowledge it or not, Biden is doing a lot better than Hillary was. The pandemic has changed everything. I have zero doubt that in a regular election season, Trump would've went around doing rallies everywhere while Biden was locked in the basement and only coming out every now and then to say some WTF off the wall racist stuff about black people and it would've sunk him. But the pandemic has changed everything and Trump's poor response of it, has played into Dems favor.
If you believe Biden has a chance in Georgia, there's just no communicating reality. Polls like that should trigger alarm bells in your mind that "these are all being manipulated", not "wow, Orange Man is finished!!"
well you're right that there really is no communicating with you
"Blue Texas" definitely triggers alarm bells.
No, you're in denial of reality.
I admit the brainworms kept me from thinking Trump could ever possibly win in 2016, but I distinctly remember the moment in the lead up to the election when I looked at all the polls coming out and realized just how razor thin the margin could be and started chickening out of my initial choice to write in Bernie.
People trying to suggest this situation is the same as 2016 are forgetting just what a roller-coaster the 2016 election was and are ultimately just desperate for the Libs to eat shit again. That's understandable given the fact that they basically told us all to fuck off....but the sad frustrating reality you're going to have to face come November is that putting aside some cataclysmic next level fuckery between now and then they're going to get away with it.
People here don't understand that the entire media apparatus fucking DESPISES Trump. That's the reason he's so hated. If Trump were like Reagan or Bush and sucked off reporters, they would love him. It has nothing to do with policy or reality. The media is full of snivelling pansies who think that if they just ignore the Bad Man who bullies them, he will go away.
Who here doesn't get that?
Unless you want to argue that they're literally just making up polling data and pulling numbers from air that still doesn't change the reality of the situation. Like Ohwell said: in a year without a pandemic and the catastrophic economic impact I completely agree this year would look a hell of a lot more like 2016....but that's completely hypothetical and not in line with the actually reality we live in.
The "catastrophic" economic impact is vastly, vastly overblown by the Left. Plus, Biden is supposedly ahead because of well-off suburban whites, who definitely have not suffered a "catastrophic" economic impact in the past 6 months.
The polling data that's gets published is completely non-sensical and often contradictory. Public polls aren't completely fabricated, bit the thumbs are on the scales and they are push polls, not reflective of reality. Their purpose is to make useful idiots like the people on this board strike and riot if Biden loses because Trump "obviously" cheated. It's just bet hedging.
bro shut your ass up people are getting thrown out of their houses and losing their jobs (and with it, their health insurance) enmasse, it's not "overblown by the left"
Things have gotten Better during the Pandemic due to eviction protections and the lifeline of the $600 checks. Those people were vulnerable pre-pandemic, and they remain a small minority. The idea that material conditions have actually gotten worse is a massive blind spot on the Left and just this insane delusion that gets repeated like a mantra with no real basis
Hey, let me get one of those 600 dollar checks real quick.
Oh wait I'm ineligible
Dude. Shut the fuck up. I lost my job and had to move back with my parents, a privilege which a LOT of people in my situation DO NOT HAVE. Everyone I knew from work who I still keep up with is struggling in some way because of this too.
Please for the love of god eat a massive chode
Tents all over the place in Seattle.
It's not new, seems worse though
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How's that work? You were making well over $800 a week
Am I? Nobody told me.
$600 a week plus unemployment means you either made well over $60k a year if losing your job meant you had to move back home, or you made less than that and actually got a bonus.
What did you do with your $15,000?
I got one check for 1200 back in March and haven't recieved anything else since.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Eqs14Latmg
There’s been like a thousand evictions, in my city alone, since this shit started and the largest public school system in my city counted 13,000 homeless children. PLEASE SHUT THE FUCK UP.
There were evictions PRE PANDEMIC. This is not a NEW issue!
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Those people blame "Democrat governors" if they blame anyone at all. Plus again, actual, REAL material conditions have not degraded.
Every time that the MSM says that's it's OK to talk about inequality, the Left naively sees it as an opportunity to bring up already existing structural inequalities and act like they are brand new problems that are rapidly getting worse. Then nothing changes and they wonder why.
Ok, for the sake of argument let's just say that's true.
..........AAAAAANNNNNNDDDDD?????
This is like pointing out that "welll acccctuuuuuaaaaallllllly we lost glass-steagall during the clinton administration so really its HIS fault!!!"
Even by your own logic the average voter DOESN'T FUCKING CARE. The only thing they ask themselves is "Is my life ok...or is it shit right now? Oh yeah, definitely shit....who's president? Yeah...fuck that guy!!!!"
any eviction is an issue, and finalizing the paperwork and sending it to court where it gets rubberstamp during the pandemic IS an issue.
How has a the pandemic made this worse? Has there been an increase compared to 1 or 2 years ago? Were evictions not just rubber-stamped before?
Holy shit are you out of your fucking mind?
Yes, it's increased by like 1000%.
This may be hard for you to believe, but illegal or "encouraged" evictions are happening fucking everywhere. Trump's decree is a fucking piece of paper.
There is a massive, unprecedented, unreported eviction crisis in every major American city. Completely unprecedented by anything for nearly a century.
Where is the actual proof? This is about as reliable as stating "there is a massive, satanic child molestation cult in every major American city"
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We're near Depression era economic conditions.
There's fucking tent cities up and down every block here, from people with mattress pads and lamps (ie, people who were not homeless before this and were decently working class.)
I was willing to entertain your position because I'm sympathetic to the idea that Biden has a manufactured lead, but you are actually fucking stupid if you believe what you're saying right now.
This is flat out fucking delusion driven by media hysteria and America's collective lack of memory. It's fucking shameful to watch the "materialists" bleat out just absolutely insane views of reality.
The actual unemployment rate is near 20%. I don't know how you can believe that the entire media can be manufacturing consent for Biden, but isn't doing so for the state of the economy.
We're like in mid crash '29 right now. Things are just getting started. But they're already very fucking bad, and you're just completely out of touch if you think otherwise.
Why would the media be defending the economy? They want people to think it's bad so Biden will ein
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If it hasn't touched you, it's hard to see it happening.
Too big and too slow. Why we have such a problem with idiots and masks too.
Consumer spending is up!
I go outside everyday, and I see zero signs of the "economic devastation" or a "catastrophe"
I can't speak for anyone else but I've been spending money stupidly because I'm depressed and looking for anything to distract me.
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Like 5 businesses closed their storefronts on main street in my liberal, upper-middle-class town.
No business closures in my working-class urban neighborhood
Link
Not sure if this puts us in the Great Depression per se, but according to this article, huge numbers of people are either not paying rent, or are putting their rent on credit cards, at the least. The article quotes a rental payment processor company called Avail as saying that only 55% of landlords using their service received payments in full in July. This article says that 32% of households did not completely pay their housing payment in July, which is apparently a record, and the third month in a row in which the previous record was broken.
Another important point to note is that undocumented people do not receive the Bernie Bucks, nor did they get stimulus checks. Likewise for unhoused people.
Unemployment is insanely high as well - though the $600/week payments has helped a lot of people, that benefit has expired now, so we'll see what happens next. This wound-lick of a welfare plan kept a lot of us from penury for a while, I'll admit - my income shrank by only about 10%, which is amazing considering I went from working 40-45 hours/week to 13-20/week. Again, without that added benefit, a lot of people are gonna get fucked, which is going to drive down aggregate demand and further depress the economy. (Welfare is good folks, whodda thunk?)
I imagine the medical debt from covid hospitalizations is going to really fuck some people over, too, though I don't know the numbers on that.
Anyway, you wanted a material analysis, so here it is.
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Last I checked the **only ** demographic Trump was leading in was older white men without a college degree. You can argue semantics over the use of the word "catastrophic" but even well-off suburban whites who have maintained employment through this thing have still felt the impact....and given how spoiled they are any drop in their standard of living is viewed by them as "catastrophic". I know a ton of them who have been forced to take massive pay cuts...and trust me...they ain't too happy about that.
And yeah...no. There's a distinction between manufacturing consent and just making shit up in the same way there's a difference between manipulating an election and outright electoral fraud.
Post hog.
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Trump would be cruising to an easy re-election if not for COVID.
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What are "these conditions"?
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lol
Don't know why you're laughing. Polls might've been insane dogshit but it's 70/30 Biden right now.
Trump needs to win every remaining uncalled state. Biden only needs to win one.
It's not impossible for Trump, but it's not very likely.
Trump's cheat scenario isn't likely either, because it was predicated on the idea that the vote had to be arbitrarily stopped if it was taking too long. But if they stop now, he loses. Ditto to some earlier point yesterday.
I'm laughing because it wasn't a blowout and the polls were significantly off, yet again.
Yeah for sure.
Maybe all the failsons run Quinnipiac now. I dunno.
I heard that they were still doing insane shit like still calling landlines only. But I figured polls were important enough to the ruling class that they would escape neoliberal hollowing out.
That does not appear to be the case.