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  • ItGoesItGoes [he/him]
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    4 years ago

    I don't agree with some of your points, and some of your affirmations are just plain wrong.

    I will start with the following:

    The effect is the same as above: it succeeded in attracting foreign companies at the expense of working conditions and domestic industries.

    You are putting it like China doesn't has its own industries, when China is precisely one of the few countries that has its own industries in pretty much all fields. Also, most of Chinese industries produce for domestic consumption.

    While I don't agree with the bad working condition (someone close to me its a victim of them), I'm also aware that these conditions work both ways: Chinese workers in R&D work more, so they achieve results quicker.

    China effectively gave up domestic R&D in favor of cheap consumer goods export.

    China used these cheap goods exports as a way to initially build their economy. Now, not only has China moved away from that, but also – contrary to popular belief – its exports currently only represent around 17% of China's GDP.

    China never gave up its domestic R&D, this affirmation couldn't be more wrong. China always focused its R&D in the fields it considered the most important: trains, public services, military, aerospace industry, etc.

    You could argue that they should have focused on doing much more instead of letting private companies take care of it, but they couldn't do it in the past because they had no capital to do so. "Made in China 2025" is intended to address this old problem, and make China more self-reliant.

    As a result, China has become defenseless under Trump’s move to choke them of their semiconductor industry - the masterplan to stifle China’s technological growth.

    Defenseless? I chuckled a little. China could do a lot to hurt the US, but won't do it – that's exactly what the US wants. Trump has been a blessing for China, as it has accelerated "Made in China 2025" more than anything else could have.

    You also seem to not be very aware of modern Chinese history. The Soviet Union didn't gave China the atomic bomb, so Chinese learned how to make it. The US blocked China from space organisations, and soon China will have its own space station. There are thousands of examples like these, never underestimate the will of Chinese people.

    Fast forward to present day, TSMC is doing 5nm fab and going into 3nm next year and has planned for a 2nm debut within the next few years, while SMIC is still struggling to mass produce 14nm fab and is just able to break into 7nm.

    First: achieving 7nm is a big deal. The fact that SMIC will soon surpass Intel and most foundries in so little time deserves recognition. China is certainly not getting technologically behind, but by your logic the US soon will.

    Second: you forget that TSMC is a Taiwanese company, Taiwan is a province of China. If China is desperate, it always has the nuclear option of taking it.

    Third: 7nm is barely used in most products (as far as I know, it is manily used on phones), and too costly. 3nm and 2nm will be used even less, and be even more costly. Besides, soon we will be reaching Moore's law.

    Last but not least, 3D IC is the new shit, and China is investing in it. If China gets a head start, and dominates this technology, we won't have to worry about 7nm, 3nm, etc.

    China has no chance of overtaking the US technologically.

    In many ways China has already surpassed the US technologically, or will do it soon. I will also remind you – again – that, while Taiwan is a vassal of the US, it is still a province of China (you know what I mean).

    China has no such long-term strategic planning that fully integrates state agencies with private industries to pioneer R&D, instead they throw massive funds into the industry and hoping that the money will solve the problem by itself.

    While I agree, there are also state companies that are working on those projects, China is absolutely not only letting private companies do all the work.

    • shitstorm [he/him]
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      4 years ago

      I will also remind you – again – that, while Taiwan is a vassal of the US, it is still a province of China (you know what I mean).

      Is this supposed to mean "Taiwan is politically dominated by US foreign policy, but culturally and historically it is connected to the mainland and those ties are still present even under current geopolitical relations"?

      • ItGoesItGoes [he/him]
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        4 years ago

        Yes, it also means that Taiwan is quite literally a province of the People's Republic of China. ROC still claims all China, and the PRC does it too; the war will only fully end when China is unified, and we already know who won (one China is recognised officially by every country, and other isn't). It's all a matter of waiting.