This comment by albanianbolshevik is a good class analysis of the current predicament in Belarus.
Putin doesn't want neoliberalism on his doorstep any more than it already is. Belarus is the last country that isn't western-aligned on his European border. He's likely going to use this to consolidate his influence in the country, and Lukashenko seems ready to play ball. This will mean the Belarusian Bourgeoisie will be compradors to the Russian Bourgeoisie, and will likely lose some power but keep their wealth. Belarusian workers will likely be in the same position as before, whereas if the color revolution prevailed, they would be subjected to shock therapy a la 1990s Russia.
My two cents is that it's highly developed monopoly capitalism, with private owners significantly integrated into the state. When privatization went down in Russia, the party bureaucracy privatized factories in their own interests, with a much smaller section of property distributed to some employees. Everything got fragmented, then it re-congealed under the new oligarchs. The closest comparison to how Putin is acting imo is Chung Doo-hwan, the south korean army general who ran the country from 1980 to 1988. Putin really is an extremely authoritarian liberal with nationalist tendencies. He's not a fascist, he doesn't rely on stuff like the far right National Liberation Movement (though doesn't mind using them as a pawn), but instead an internal National Guard. He's fully relying on the machinery of the bourgeois state, controlled by the oligarchy that rose in the smashing and looting of the soviet economy, to rule.
I’d love to see a class analysis of what Putin wants. What’s his power base? Does he want neoliberalism in his neighbours?
This comment by albanianbolshevik is a good class analysis of the current predicament in Belarus.
Putin doesn't want neoliberalism on his doorstep any more than it already is. Belarus is the last country that isn't western-aligned on his European border. He's likely going to use this to consolidate his influence in the country, and Lukashenko seems ready to play ball. This will mean the Belarusian Bourgeoisie will be compradors to the Russian Bourgeoisie, and will likely lose some power but keep their wealth. Belarusian workers will likely be in the same position as before, whereas if the color revolution prevailed, they would be subjected to shock therapy a la 1990s Russia.
Thanks, exactly what I was looking for.
My two cents is that it's highly developed monopoly capitalism, with private owners significantly integrated into the state. When privatization went down in Russia, the party bureaucracy privatized factories in their own interests, with a much smaller section of property distributed to some employees. Everything got fragmented, then it re-congealed under the new oligarchs. The closest comparison to how Putin is acting imo is Chung Doo-hwan, the south korean army general who ran the country from 1980 to 1988. Putin really is an extremely authoritarian liberal with nationalist tendencies. He's not a fascist, he doesn't rely on stuff like the far right National Liberation Movement (though doesn't mind using them as a pawn), but instead an internal National Guard. He's fully relying on the machinery of the bourgeois state, controlled by the oligarchy that rose in the smashing and looting of the soviet economy, to rule.
Gotcha. That makes sense.