While @IHME_UW repeatedly underestimates covid deaths in the US, they are apparently now projecting over 600,000 new covid deaths in China over the next three months
https://covid19.healthdata.org/china?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend
Here's what would happen if China was the US and did nothing to prevent the spread of covid
They don’t account the lock down that China doing right now, so their projection is invalidate on that point
"Here's the projection IF they have a 3rd dose. Here's the projection IF they wear masks" How do you look at China's response thus far and not assume those by default?
And what's the projection if they do comprehensive lockdowns and testing?
Eh, I saw some photos from my fiances' daughter-in-law in Shanghai recently and there was no distancing in the line to get tested, literally just people getting a test because they had to... But by the time you get your results it's not helpful if you caught it while waiting for the test...
They are pretty heavily locked down right now though so maybe it'll be stymied. The problem with zero-COVID is that none of the vaccines are neutralizing, so the only way to prevent cases from rising is with these restrictive lockdowns, but as long as they can swing it economically and are taking care of people there's not a problem. It's just hard to lock down in a way that preemptively keeps it from spreading to aged populations - which is really the place where measurable fatalities occur. The vast majority of people can catch it and not be severely affected. Most of the rest would survive if vaccinated, which seems to be pretty widespread in PRC.
Was it family groups that maybe weren't distancing or was everyone just crammed together?
Fucking libs , man:
I'm glad this isn't true, because if it is, our economy will be in shambles. Truly scary to contemplate
:screm-a:
Have you considered that the reason China has done so much better than the US is precisely that they don't think of the economy first and the public well-being a distant second? Who am I kidding, it's more like 5th or 6th if at all. The number one lessons we should be taking away from this pandemic is that the "economy" cannot meaningfully be understood as separate and distinct from the health of the working class. It's almost like labour power is the source of all wealth or something.
:marx-hi:
I predict a similar increase in the US. What’s that, 350 million deaths by July? If Americans wear masks.
Them: "It's gonna go way, way, way up!"
Us: "Explain. And explain in detail with the hows and whys."
Them: "How and why? 'Cause we want it to!"
It’s the reverse of how all of the charts for the US predict that actually it’s gonna suddenly stop any day now!
I love it when somebody like the director of the fucking CDC says something like "If there's a localized significant uptick - mask usage could be reinstituted...." They should be tarred and feathered. Repeatedly until they promise to promote masking.
People are going to mask up again after the many months that the media, the Biden administration and most federal and state health agencies have been intimating (or outright saying) we are over covid. Oh, yeah, sure.
We won't get people wearing their masks again - but we will get a huge amount of illness, suffering, and death.
Even if this number were real and came to pass. Hell even if it were doubled, China would still have done way better on covid than the US
