My QAnon-brained coworker is trying to convince me that Texas is joining BRICS and we're going to go back to the gold standard. Also this man is heavily invested in the Iraqi dinar currency. He obviously couldn't explain what any of that meant, so I'm coming to the one source I can trust; strangers on the internet. What the hell is gonna happen?
My QAnon-brained coworker is trying to convince me that Texas is joining BRICS
This is strangely charming... like, in the way you might see a child try to string words together to join in on the grownups conversation?
Texas is not joining BRICS or anything, Iraqi dinar is the early 2000s version of Bitcoin/cryptocurrency scams.
In reality BRICS is likely going to expand in the coming years with new countries joining, but widespread de dollarisation is far off.
This is an incredible take, seemingly apropos of nothing anyone has ever said. Your coworker should start a podcast.
Over the course of the next 5-10 years dedollarisation will continue, eventually hyper inflation will hit the US, money printing will no longer be possible, water will rise in value and it will be impossible for the US to maintain its 1000 military bases around the world of which 70% of all overseas military costs of the US army are water. The US empire will become untenable and begin a process of retraction that the British empire and so many other empires went through.
The danger is that the US will start ww3 before this hits them.
70% of all overseas military costs of the US army are water
do you have a link before i start digging through budget requests and shit? this is a great data point and i cant find much with a quick google.
The Pentagon did their own report in 2019 on the threat of the US military collapsing in the next 20 years, citing climate change and the cost of water as the leading threat. They aim to mitigate this with technology improvements but I call bullshit and see these as easy targets of sabotage. https://climateandsecurity.files.wordpress.com/2019/07/implications-of-climate-change-for-us-army_army-war-college_2019.pdf
Without technology advances, water remains 30%-40% of the force sustainment requirement.
I was apparently slightly misremembering the report, water is currently 40% of their costs but expected to rise to 70% of their costs. If I were interested in kicking the US military bases out of my country the focus of my attention would be on sabotaging their water in a way that raises the cost to maintain their bases to untenable levels.
No need to sabotage their water. They do it themselves. :agony-shivering:
Yeah there are probably things like this abroad that never get disclosed. Generally speaking though I'm talking about maoists in south america that want rid of the bases or comrades in parts of asia. Any bases that are inland are probably particularly susceptible.
Likelihood of the military getting what it needs quickly enough to mitigate this given the VAST size of their overseas organisation? Near zero. I see a contraction of the US military as inevitable. If climate change weren't happening and water costs weren't skyrocketing they would probably last much longer but the situation for them is that they are vastly oversized for the circumstances.
How will they respond to this? I assume they will pick a theatre that they consider the highest priority and pull resources out of all other theatres. The priority will probably be China or Africa while others will be necessarily contracted as their abilities reach their limits and opponents seize on this obvious weakness to drive the knife in.
They will probably incline towards total domination of Latin America
You think? And leave Africa, the Middle East, Asia and Europe to China who is benefited by the contiguous landmass?
I think they will compete as hard as possible until their dying breath. Knowing full well that getting locked into south america only would lose them every single battle.
he's incredibly real and confusing. Love the guy to death and he's so so close to getting it. He just can't move past the trump shit. We'll get blazed on lunch and talk world politics and shit and he's finally shut up about China being evil and he's advocating BRICS now. Win some lose some.
Dedollarization is happening faster than previously expected, but will still be slow because so many countries still need to sell things and get USD back - including anyone exporting to the US. Also many countries already have a big backlog of USD or debts in USD and it will take time to trade it out without crashing their economies.
I don't think dollar is going away anytime soon. For a new currency to appear, everyone has to trust it and use it for trade. It also has to be ensured that the country issuing it keeps it freely convertible. Yuan is not suitable for this because of China's capital controls which makes it not good for trade.
Check out Triffin dilemma Wiki article.
Edit:I think more important than de-dollarization is for import dependant countries to switch from fossil fuels to nuclear/renewables. This will reduce the demand for dollars and foreign exchange in general by a lot. For many large countries including China and India, oil makes up a significant chunk of imports.
Yuan not gonna be the reserve currency. Even the cpc doesn’t want that, the multipolar world just gonna have country using their own currency for trade and ditch the US dollar since the dollar itself is not stable with the US govt weaponizing it. The Yuan gonna be use more because China is an industrial power, and everyone want to buy stuff from China. What the US have for export when China achieve high end manufacture? Other than fake “freedom” and their shite culture.
US sanctions are a large part of what's driving the push for de-dollarization. China's capital controls don't have to be great for trade, only better than US's own currency controls.
I can't believe the Iraqi dinar thing is still around, it was originally a Bush-era scam for obvious reasons.
Wonder what'd happen to the economy if one dinar was suddenly worth $10,000? :stonks-down:
I love dinar guys for the same reason I love meme stock cargo cults. The whole thing falls apart if they ask a single question about the basic premise. Every Gamestop employee with stock options would become an overnight millionaire if the MOASS happened, every Iraqi would become one if the dinar revaluation happened. There isn't enough money involved for either. If they occurred, it'd immediately result in all of the Gamestop employees retiring en masse or the Iraqi economy imploding. That one hour bank rush to cash out before it all goes to shit would ruin whatever company tries to fulfill the sale.
You know, if there was ever a socialist in the white house, they could generate a lot of easy goodwill by recognizing old Dinars...
I really appreciate your contributions to the site. I'll check out the series you mentioned.
Countries gonna use their own currency to trade, use gold or their own resource to trade, they not gonna use the dollar as the medium again since the US govt could just literally steal it, and when the US ban you from buying thiet shite, the dollar is worth as toilet paper that you use to wipe your ass when you take shite
