Ukraine has made the reclamation of all pre-2014 territory their stated war aims, so I don't see how you can call anything less than that a Ukrainian victory.
And considering how much it has already cost them, it’s literally impossible for them to have anything better than a Pyrrhic victory. If they could take a couple oblasts from Russia somehow, it would still have cost too much.
How can you not see how you can call it that? I’m fairly critical of our media, but when it comes to how you can call all sorts of things Ukrainian victories, I really have to hand it to them. They have stepped up with hundreds of concrete examples.
I know this is probably irony poisoning, but this is gonna get a big yikes from me. Pretty lame joke
I don't think they know what the word pyrrhic means (and I'm pretty sure they miss spelled it as well)
also ukrainian nationalists wouldnt consider back to 2014 a 'decisive victory'. they want to take everything to the east up to the caspian, lol
Whoever made this doesn’t even understand what Novorossiya is.
Novorossiya isn’t just the four oblasts they’ve annexed already. Novorossiya isn’t even the “Landlocked” map. Novorossiya is “Landlocked” plus Dnepropetrovsk and Kharkov.
Ok but set aside the name for a moment and look at the borders that are drawn under that scenario. It's the most plausible outcome.
I feel like it's going to be Novorossiya but I don't know if it's really a phyrric Russian victory.
I think like Jon Meacham has said, Ukraine joining NATO, Putin will "break" Ukraine. Putin knows he can't control the entire country, but he can wreck it as a demonstration and a warning to other countries on Russia's border.
I feel like calling it a phyrric victory is just NAFO cope, like somehow it's still worse for Russia even though Ukraine is the country that is completely wrecked.
If Ukraine just completely collapses like Afghanistan once the West pulls support, yeah maybe (although more likely adding Dnepropetrovsk and Kharkov for the full Novorossiya).
But I’m leaning more towards Russia just keeping what they already annexed to break the stalemate.
These things go slowly, slowly then all at once. There's been a lot more movement on the front these last few months, and the Ukrainian army is pretty depleted. At some point Russia is going to wind up for a big kick at an open door and we'll see things starting to look more like Afghanistan in 2021 or the final months of the Third Reich. A negotiated peace is the only thing that can prevent this kind of outcome, and Ukraine might be smart enough to go in for it before things really start to deteriorate. Even so it's hard to imagine the Russians crossing back over the Dnieper and even harder imagining them taking a defended Odessa. If they get Odessa it will be in a peace treaty, not by military force.
Odesa people were always autonomous in their minds. If Odesa will be given to russia via treaty there is a high chance it will rebel.
Putin's been trying to "make peace" with the West for decades. The West doesn't want peace, they want domination and control. That's the whole reason the war is happening in the first place.
That's true but it also doesn't mean Russia will make correct choices
I don’t think politically he can survive after returning the Donbas and Crimea. Too many people have died and too many years spent on messaging to back down from it. But I can definitely see him giving kowtowing to the west just because he’s too trusting.
I don’t think politically he can survive after returning the Donbas and Crimea
Why would he do that? I don't really see any indication of that happening?
Also "trusting" is not a word I would use to describe Putin
I didn’t say he would do that. OP said they predict Putin giving up all his strategic advantages, and I countered the prediction saying that even if he wanted to, it would be a political disaster because of all the men who died capturing it and how important he made the war seem to the citizens. Not to mention the actual citizens in the east and mainland Russians who will feel that he betrayed his people
popping open a bottle of moderately priced champagne
hooray, we have maintained the nation of Ukraine and all it cost was the lives of thousands
I still recall a video by beau of the fifth column (sometimes I need a laugh) where he was trying to sound intellectual by bringing up some NATO figure that said you needed 1 soldier for every 50 civilians to hold territory and saying Russia can grab all this territory but can't hold it, clearly either unaware of the genocide the people in these regions had been subjected to or in disbelief of it.
Well yeah isn't he former US military? Of course he can only imagine occupying an unwilling country where everyone hates you
Would Novorossiya be a phyrric victory?
Russia achieving all of its stated territorial goals sounds like a standard victory.
I guess if they get Novorossiya but the remainder of Ukraine becomes a NATO base then that’s a phyrric victory since it would still be a geostrategic loss compared to 2014.
Which I guess is why NATO ghouls are now calling for a “cease fire” since a Korea-type division of Ukraine without a peace treaty would allow them to remilitarize the rump state and start fighting again in 10, 20, or 50 years.
At least landlocked is a good move for Russia, strategically. Would connect to Transnitria and eliminate Ukrainian claims to Black Sea resources, namely oil and gas. Aside from the direct material value of those resources, if they remain Ukrainian they will be exploited for conflict by Western powers. However, it also depends on how well Russia could maintain stability in areas outside Donbas.
Crazy how many people, at any point in this conflict, ACTUALLY thought the Back To 2024 scenario was any likely
