I think there's kind of a misunderstanding of fascism baked into this analysis. America is already a fascist country. It is genocidal, racist, imperialist, martial, anti-communist, patriarchal, has a hyper religious section of the population, a semi-theocratic government, it puts millions of people into prisons, etc. The slim veneer of democracy we have doesn't meaningfully separate us from fascism.

We all go along with the fascism unless you cook up a definition of anti-fascism that you fit into. The funny thing is that there are a lot of people opposed to this fascism, probably even a majority. The problem is that they'll never actually do anything to combat it. Most of the fascists will never actually do anything either. Americans have been so neutered of any political power we simply exist like specks if dust floating around at the whim of the currents. Whether we agree with them or not is largely meaningless.

I don't think there's necessarily been a growth in fascist activity either. I live in the north but the Klan was active up here for most of the twentieth century. Birchers were all over the place. The Tea Party rose up after them. Those right wing nuts out in the Northwest are the descendants of ten generations of right wing nuts, and the same for their comrades all over the country. Polite society was forced to acknowledge the fascism baked into our reality because of the progress that has been made on social issues, not because it has grown. It's like the 2020 protests didn't happen because of some uptick in police killings, they were because those killings were always happening.

i’m not going to hazard a guess at percentages but i want to add some perspective.

as gets said time and time again by crusty old leftists in discussions such as this one, fascism refers to a very specific ideology and moment in time, in the first half of the 20th century. its descendant ideological strains can’t really be called fascism as much more than as a derogatory remark toward them, evoking the now well known consequences of the 20th century fascist movement, namely a global war and the deaths of untold millions of innocents. nowadays, many of these descendant ideologies don’t really see themselves as being aligned with 20th century fascism, and in fact will proudly defend their own beliefs by pointing out that they stand in opposition to the capital f Fascists of yesteryear. and they earnestly believe they are on the opposite side of some sort of spectrum, choosing to define themselves by their obsession with personal liberty in contrast to the authoritarianism of the National Socialists. in their mind, the parallels are coincidental.

there are some clowns like Patriot Front who deliberately invoke the aesthetics of the fascists, being more honest about the roots of their belief and not deluding themselves into thinking they stand in opposition to fascism. they are a minority of modern reactionaries. the evangelical homeschooling parents who are convinced public schools are communist indoctrination camps, the small business owner Qanon cultists, the MAGA-hat Floridian retirees— these are the base of the modern reactionary threat in America. their ideological has become more North American centric, built on an obsessive and misguided preoccupation with ‘liberty’ and skin color than on the fleshed-out history of absolutist monarchist rule and virulent antisemitism that European Fascism was centered around a century prior. when they call Joe Brandon a dictator for forgiving student loans or saying that some pitiful tax increase to fund cops is going turn impressionable children into hiphop-loving transsexual antifas, they may be exaggerating but they aren’t arguing in bad faith. they actually believe this shit, just as most of the high ranking Nazis earnestly believed communism was a disease caused by christendom’s inaction on cleansing the festering wound that was the existence of jews.

in that sense, i’d say less than 1% of americans are ‘fascists’. but the majority of republican voters believe nowadays in a loosely defined ideology that is not direct continuation of European fascism, but a twisted rats nest of Nazi anticommunism and the same hysterical white bourgeois land owner brainworms that led to the southern ruling class saying shit like “slavery is a necessary element of freedom, and trying to stomp it out constitutes tyranny” and seceding in a suicidal fit of Jeffersonian yeoman-independence-idolosing rage. that same delusional worship of capital with local brainworms and peculiarities baked in that led to the Final Solutional and the American Civil War are rearing their bead again in the Republican party during the Trump era. it was always there, especially among southern Democrats before the ideological realignment of the US parties made these kinds of people coalesce around the GOP.

the way that this modern post-fascist movement will affect America is very different than the way the rise of the Nazis affected Germany and Italy, because our two party political system is so vastly different than Weimar Germany or the Italian constitutional monarchy. its hard to what will happen going forward as a result of this, but the gist of what i’m getting at here is that a distinctly north american reactionary ideology that sometimes gains enough self awareness to deliberately emulate the aesthetics and policies of 20th century european fascism is already here to stay and growing stronger. your Qanon uncle might not be a fascist because that historical moment has already come and pass, but he and millions of others have become something roughly analogous to fascism. if we go by that metric, the majority of republican voters could be seen as “fascists” already.

A- 0.5%. Could be a little less, but probably on the rise and could reach as high as 1% within a decade. I have met 3 or 4 certain fascists in person (out of a total of thousands of acquaintances), none of whom had any in-person connections to other fascists. But I suspect their numbers are concentrated in reactionary hotbeds.

B- 16%. Here I'm going with a midpoint between the number that believe the 2020 general election was stolen and the number that say violence against this regime is justified right now, cross-checked against the percent of people with wealth above the nationwide mean (as a proxy for the class of lifetime net creditors).

C- 80%, plus or minus 2%.

D- 4%, and that's pushing it. 5-8% took part in the 2020 wave of BLM protests in any form in person, which is a very low bar for personal risk. Marxists and anarchists and democratic socialists add up to maybe just over 1%, the vast majority being demsocs. The remainder of this is left-liberals who'd be willing to put something on the line for their beliefs.

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Doing napkin math without looking at others’ answers:

62% of people vote. Of the 38% who don’t, I’ll put 33% in the apathetic ‘go along’ basket of 3. I’ll give an overestimation for ardent anarchists who refuse to vote, or people in prison, or kids, for a charitable 5% in basket 4.

Approx half of the 62%, being 30%, vote GOP. Let’s say, charitably, that only a fifth of them are actually fash, putting a total 6% in basket 1. The remaining 24% are in basket 2.

The 32% who vote Dem are where it gets hard. I’ll say a sixth of them, 5%, will actually fight in basket 4. The remaining 27% go in basket 3.

That gives us a total of:

Basket 1: 6%

Basket 2: 24%

Basket 3: 60%

Basket 4: 10%

Meaning we have 6% who want to do it, 24% who will help them, 60% who will look on, and 10% who will push back.

Edit; pretty close to OP’s. Slightly less optimistic, even.

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1. 2% - Neo Nazis

2. 32% - Republicans

3. 65% - Liberals and Independents

4. 1% - Leftists

There are really not that many real leftists in America. I would consider even your most principled rad-lib to capitulate to fascism because they are at their core, still going to be capitalists. The idea that some liberals are not going to go along with fascism isn't one that I buy. They will roll over, and the reason they are so fired up and scared about fascism winning at the voting booth is because they know they will obey and won't fight it.

I operate on the assumption its a solid 20%, with an additional 15% being sympathetic

5% open fash, 25% fash-adjacent petit bourgeoisie, 50% centrist go-alongs, 20% cool people

Based on people I run into anyway

Edit: wow, guess I've got a bias towards optimism because no one else pegged cool people at such a high %, lol

I'm not American so I can't answer the question. I can however answer the question for my homeland Denmark, the Nordic socialist workers' paradise that American progressives dream of.

Open fascists: Less than once percent. There are some fucked up shitheads who try to reenact the 1930's but people here know that nazis are bad as they paid us a visit during WWII.

Cryptofascists: Around 40% is totally on board with racism, police violence, the carceral state and the military. They love seeing poors and non-whites being stomped into the ground and they have nothing but scorn for any kind of social progress.

Centrists, enablers: Around 35%. They might not be keen on fascism themselves but they have no qualms treating fascists as legitimate political actors or of enabling them if it serves their own purposes.

Cool people: Around ten percent are principled anti-fascists. Most of them will be too scared or demotivated to do anything when shit hits the fan

Openly 10

Adjacent 45

Go along 40

Anti 5

My estimate for fash-adjacent seems to be higher than some others here, but I think it's because the prompt in OP frames them as "small business NRx types, HOA suburbanites too well-off to march with the openly fash they consider lowly losers", though personally I know several people are working class yet somehow fit into this category.

100%

i don't know that this exercise will produce much useful discussion, but i'd guess 3%, 20%, 67%, and 10%, respectively. I think the problem with your categories is the wide variance in and gradations of belief. like, i don't think it's controversial to say that a very small proportion of americans are self-identified neonazis or white nationalists. but how many support the state enacting violence on the undesirables of society, especially the homeless, addicts, and criminals? how many support the US military without even really understanding what it does or why? and for antifascists, sure maybe we'd break the law to fight fascism, but how many would take up arms? and maybe if we live in a blue state we would help someone from a red state get an abortion, but how many would physically fight ICE agents trying to kidnap people?

Openly fascist and in the streets: less than 1%, but maybe as high as 3% if we count the most active Q-anoners

Above + pro-fascist but won't risk their own necks: 20% (It's just usually about 20% in western countries + this is the number of Q-anon believers)

Above + will go along with anything as long as the fascists don't come for them personally: 80%

Antifa, or at least antifa if shit kicks off: 7%. (Higher number than I was expecting to put here honestly, but I don't expect it to be substantially different than the number of people who showed up for the George Floyd protests)

We just saw a speech by Biden that was drenched in fascist imagery. It looked like something straight out of V for Vendetta.

It was met with wild cheers.