He's gonna do it.
I don't think either candidate has it in the bag. I think Biden does have the advantage of greater turnout, but Trump has his base and voter suppression.
He also has the Supreme Court if/when the voter suppression fuckery goes to court.
"He's gonna win" implicitly assumes that nothing has changed in the polling technique. I would guess that the pollsters have adjusted their sampling methodology to account for the misses in 2016. I don't think comparing these numbers is apples to apples
I'm as skeptical as anyone when it comes to Biden winning, but it feels different than 2016. The economy is shit, everyone is mad, etc.
This tweet is incredibly dumb.
Firstly you can't just look at one candidate's support in isolation, because usually there are significant numbers of third-party and undecided voters. Actually these were really high in 2016, so it's pretty common for both the main parties to beat their 2016 polls, but the Democrats usually beat theirs by much more.
Secondly the 2016 election was on the 8th, not the 3rd, so it makes no sense to have a common x axis with the calendar date - "number of days from election" would be more appropriate. When you're a long way out from the election, 5 days isn't very much, but the difference between being 7 days out and 12 days out is pretty big, especially bearing in mind the high rates of early voting this time.
Thirdly there is no reason to believe that the swing state polls will overstate Biden's support the same amount that they overstated Hillary's support. Historically the errors have jumped around - it's possible that they will be out even further in the same direction, but it's also possible they will be out in the opposite direction from last time. So it's hard to draw any conclusions from comparing the 2020 polls to the 2016 polls.
There is massive Turnout so I'm kinda skeptical of the doom and gloom despite seeing ways Trump could get out of this scenario.
Pretty much everyone I know decided to not vote by mail because of the fuckery and is risking covid.
Biden is doing that himself. He has spent the past 2 weeks constantly shooting himself in the foot by talking about how he loves the Republicans so much, he'll appoint them, approve their SCOTUS pick, and how he wants some of them in his cabinet.
Biden is offering NOTHING. He don't even pay lip service to popular ideas. He gave a full speech about how much he supports fracking and he has openly said a number of times how he don't support healthcare. As we draw closer to the election, people are looking at the serious questions and he really has nothing to offer except "not Trump".
Most people won't hear about that. The settle for Biden campaign is much wider than you expect. Most people can't comprehend the idea of opposition like we do.
The settle for Biden campaign is much wider than you expect.
They tried this same strategy in 2004 and it didn't work. You underestimate just how popular Trup is with the GOP voter base.
It's basically currently at the same levels that it eventually reached in 2016 after the Comey letter. The question therefore is whether or not a similar event will occur. The GOP has been trying their hardest to manufacture such an event with the Hunter stuff. Is that catching on, though? Or is it just existing Trump supporters circlejerking about it?
if trump's wins, i hope its for little so the dems go scorched earth on everyone
Ohio and Georgia are the only surprising ones. Everything else follows the "he's president, so..." re-election track. I don't think Trump's GAINED more die-hards than he's lost or anything, it's just in these states it's "eh..."
That's assuming there is someone in the national security apparatus that hates Biden as much as Comey hated Hillary AND still wants Trump around which I don't see happening.
Anything is possible, but it doesn't seem likely
im gonna need a comparison to other elections though. i dunno.
