Its becoming clear that China is on track to match or overtake the USA as a global superpower. Since like half of our economy is based on Chinese imports - is there even anything the bourgeoisie / military / intelligence agencies can do about it? Do you think we're going to move more towards conflict or is China going to pimp slap us and tell us to know our role or they won't make any iphones for us or whatever.
Real conflict seems very unlikely but there are psychos like John Bolton who will refuse to accept that USA isn't numba 1 anymore.
The US going down like UK is not going to happen
Both USA and Soviet Union played a big role in the death of British empire.
Increasingly Britain played a subordinate role until it had essentially handed off its neocolonial ties to the US and become the lapdog of the US
By 1960 the US was a debtor nation. After the world financial system moved off the gold standard the US insisted that the world trade in petro dollarsand made it plain to Iran and Saudia Arabia that it meant war if they dared trade in anything else.
The consequence is a bankrupt nation demanding that other countries cycle their capital into USD.
“Never before has a bankrupt nation dared insist that its bankruptcy become the foundation of world economic policy; that, because of its bankruptcy, all the nations what their economies transferring its bankruptcy to themselves, stultifying their industries, and paying tribute to the beggar.”
“Effectively speaking, the United States has compelled the older nations of the West to pay for the overseas costs of the US war in Asia. Whatever they may desire, the central banks of Europe had no choice but to continue to except the paper dollar equivalents annually created as the domestic and overseas deficit of the United States increase. Otherwise, the whole of shaky structure of the world monetary system will collapse into rubble. America has succeeded in forcing other nations to pay for its wars on a systematic basis, something never before accomplished by any nation in history .”
https://michael-hudson.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/superimperialism.pdf
In Michael Hudsons Super Imperialism Michael goes through this entire process for brevity it means the US can essentially print as much money as it likes whilst having its imperialist wars paid for by Europe like mafioso racket who in turn had to issue austerity against their own people
What does this mean for US empire? Its debt is at sky rocket levels and the only reason the world allows it is because... points to the US military budget
Meanwhile China is playing a deeply progressive role in financing infrastructure and loans across africa and ME and bringing both stability, wealth and prosperity and an alternative to neoliberal world bank and imf which play the role of indebting nations then forcing their local resources to the US
China holdsthe most US debt butboth Russia and China are getting rid of their dollars and with the rise of China they are cutting into US imperialisms pie
To put it bluntly imagine a house of cards built off US dollars. Each dollar pulled out causes inflation which means US military is more expensive to finance which is the gun pointed at the worlds head to prop up this ridiculous process. At the end of this process US will have no gun
Each one pulled out by China will not be a slow process... It will be a tipping point then the entire house falls down into hyperinflation with a currency thats worth nothing
"China will gradually decrease its holdings of US debt to about $800billion under normal circumstances. But of course, China might sell all of its US bonds in an extreme case, like a military conflict," Xi Junyang, a professor at the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics told the Global Times on Thursday”
(Note it is not just a "professor" saying this. GlobalTimes is the CPCs main outlet and this was on the front page)
https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1199833.shtml
The US (i believe) will go to war to maintain its status quo and it can either go to war with a small % chance of maintaining status quo or it can die a death of a thousand cuts and collapse in a cascade anyway. If i were chapos i would be organising yesterday because imperialism turned inward is fascism
But China’s renewed determination to dump both dollar denominated bonds and dollars is a developing crisis for America and the Fed’s monetary policy. We can expect further threats to materialise from the Americans to China’s ownership of US Treasuries and agency bonds. It is a situation that could threaten to escalate rapidly out of control before China has disposed of the bulk of her dollar-denominated bonds.
The certain victim will be the dollar. And as the dollar sinks, China will be blamed and tensions are bound to escalate between China and her Asian partners on one side, and America and her security partners on the other. The start of this additional crisis was the turning point last March, when the Fed publicly stated its inflation credentials. With nearly $3 trillion in its reserves, it is not surprising that China is acting to protect herself.
With so much dollar debt and dollars in foreign ownership, it is hard to see how a substantial fall in the dollar’s purchasing power can be avoided and the Fed’s funding of the budget deficit badly disrupted.
https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/china-is-killing-the-dollar
(Note it is not just a “professor” saying this. GlobalTimes is the CPCs main outlet and this was on the front page)
Good summary. Just going to nitpick this part. While, like most media, Global Times is connected with the Party, it’s not the Party’s official mouthpiece—that’s China People’s Daily.
You’re right, but it’s not the formal party mouthpiece, so its comments should merely be taken as persuasive, not authoritative.
For instance, this piece about increasing a nuclear arsenal is clearly intended to be provocative, and not a statement of policy intent. It may become policy, but right now it is not.
I think America goes out similar to the way that the UK did. Our overseas power slowly wanes, we establish some kind of neoneocolonialist order to maintain profits, but our ability to maintain that is severely compromised and we start getting poorer. A tiny military conflict begs a huge response, and despite the fact that we lose twenty ships to maintain control over American Samoa this is somehow spun as proof that we're still on top militarily. The Saudis eventually determine that their future is more secure with China than with America, and their change of allegiance is the final nail in the coffin, since having a massive military matters for dick if we can't keep it running. China signs trade deals with the third world that offer much more favorable terms than anything they're getting from the west, and America is compelled to join them in order to maintain what's left. We eventually become a regional power with an oversized military sector, not unlike Russia actually.
At some point during this process, we lose Florida to global warming.
At some point during this process, we lose Florida to global warming.
California is already half desert which needs to steal water from the northern part to survive
This is something I hadn't considered but now that you mention it... feels pretty likely. Fuck.
could we get libs up in arms about the gig economy by reframing it as a chinese 4d chess conspiracy? 🤔
The y*nks are not going to take not being Number 1 anymore easy in the slightest, and the PRC is never, ever going to lose their bottle and bend the knee because they are not going to take another Century of Humiliation-like scenario by finding themselves beholden to the whims of a western power.
I think the most likely scenario, considering both actors have nukes, is that open conflict and a hot war is never going to realistically take place—rather, the burgers will ramp up their efforts to undermine the PRC and its interests, like the BRI, in a more surreptitious fashion, whilst the CPC keeps doing its best to turn their economy inwards and gain friends in Asia and Africa.
Unless India has a lot of US backing, in a war between India and China China would win. Looking at military budgets and equipment, China beats them in pretty much every regard. It would be a terrible war with a huge cost of human life, but the cards seem stacked against India, even India’s enormous population is only slightly bigger than china’s better educated, better organized population. I don’t think China’s industry would be decimated, they already have so much, and if a serious war starts they have the military and industry advantage over India. What they don’t have is an ally advantage, America would definitely support India if they supported anyone at all. This is all purely speculation though, of course.
USA openly allying with India in a war? Pakistan has entered the chat.
Looking back at history, it seems like when one dominant power is in decline and another is rising, war eventually comes. However, at no point does an outright hot war make sense for either side - maybe the difference here is nukes add a certain finality to big wars. So I don't think we'll see an outright war. But what we will see is a new cold war. This is where all the "China bad" propaganda becomes useful to the MIC. Get ready for the military to be an ever-growing slice of the pie. We'll be told we need to give up Social Security, welfare, massive cuts to education spending, stuff like that... all in the name of defending against "evil China".
I also think the US is gonna ramp up covert ops to 11. They will trying to do to China what they did to the USSR - sow internal divisions in the hope of creating breakaway provinces which causes the PRC to collapse in on itself. It won't work but that won't stop the US from trying. Someone else here mentioned this but what the US will definitely try and probably have at least some success in will be to coup governments that try and move their countries into China's orbit.
There are a couple of things.
First up is dollar hegemony. Having the dollar as the reserve currency is an exorbitant privilege. As China’s digital currency takes off, we may see a shift there. That severely curtails the US’ monetary policy space, which makes rampant money creation less feasible. It also limits the USA’s ability to sanction countries that defy the USA. This both means those countries will become more prosperous, and that other nations will find it easier to separate from the US system.
Next up is the shift of aligned nations. Now, I’m not seeing the US letting countries fall into China’s sphere without a fight. We’ve seen China’s able to give some support to existing left movements (but tbh, in some cases even present Russia does more), but we haven’t seen capacity to help others resist colour revolutions. It’s unfortunate, but we may see countries flirting with China or a China model flipped, as what happened with Bolivia recently.
Then there’s the question of Taiwan and the South China Sea. Depending on who you ask, it’s either going to be a flashpoint, or it’s well under control. Either way, there’s potential for it to go wrong, and there are some on both sides eager to see that happen.
but we may see countries flirting with China or a China model flipped, as what happened with Bolivia recently.
Ukraine was flirting with the idea of closer ties with Russia and turning away from the EU and Obama's state dept quickly worked to torpedo that. I definitely think this will happen more.
Next up is the shift of aligned nations
Yeah I was thinking this too. I bet we'll start seeing China pick up more allies and smaller nations (especially geographically closer ones ) are gonna have to make some weird choices.
So they had originally fucked them over as soon as the USA said jump, no?
No.
It's important to keep in mind that China is still vulnerable to economic sanctions and other forms of US aggression, as well. Most countries, even those under US aggression, do not have full latitude to defy US sanctions, which is why they work. Venezuela's still in a rough state and is even more heavily sanctioned than they were last year, and China's willingness to defy these sanctions now that they're in a position to do so, which only a handful of other countries have been willing to do, provides an essential lifeline.
Another example would be China's support for Venezuela in dealing with COVID when the sanctions have prevented them from getting medical supplies through other means.
http://spanish.xinhuanet.com/2020-05/13/c_139052631.htm
In the Venezuelan case, the Minister for Foreign Relations pointed out that from the first day, the Asian country "made itself available, an airlift was established and this is the fifth flight."
He detailed that in its entirety, China has sent more than one million rapid tests, 150 thousand molecular test kits, more than eight million masks, almost two million disposable gloves, more than 135 thousand protective suits, more than 23 thousand infrared thermometers and 14 thousand protective glasses.
The Minister for Health, Carlos Alvarado, stressed that the more than 46 tons of medical supplies will be distributed in all health centers in the country.
"They are going to strengthen our diagnostic capacity and our power to protect ourselves against this terrible pandemic," he said.
He specified that supplies arrived for the performance of 80 thousand diagnostic tests and their reagents. "The only way to fight and defeat the coronavirus is with the union of all the countries of the world. We are very happy with this shipment that we are receiving," he said.
http://vicepresidencia.gob.ve/embajador-li-barong-venezuela-y-china-son-un-ejemplo-a-seguir-ante-la-comunidad-internacional/
This Saturday the sixth plane from the People's Republic of China arrived in Venezuelan territory, loaded with medical supplies, intended for the prevention and control of Covid-19, this as part of the air bridge established between both nations.
This is in addition to diplomatic support, arms sales, and loans - which they absolutely need and which do not come on terms of structural adjustment - that they've been giving Venezuela since Chavez came to office.
Wikipedia had this funny line:
In the late 1990s, China provided the Cuban government with equipment to block signals from Radio Martí.
Similar situation in Bolivia with regards to development aid and loans.
Morales praised China's relations with Latin America, and said that “China's support and aid to Bolivia's economic and social development never attach any political conditions.”
China also has a good relationship with the government of Nepal, and the one Nepali communist I've talked to said that China's seen as an important buttress against Indian aggression over there, but I don't really know the details.
And then there's the fact that the DPRK basically wouldn't exist anymore if not for China's support.
Anyway, this is just a few of the things I remembered off the top of my head. They could probably do more, and I wish they did, but there's no question that every other socialist nation would be in a far, far worse position without China's support.
I think the power and influence of the US will diminish significantly on its own. And we just move on with the new dynamic that forms.
This is what I'm leaning towards. I think the USA is just going to have to hold the L.
Here's my educated guess:
I know China has plans to become more economically independent, and with its increasing economic power and workers' increasing wages, I think American capitalists will start to see profits from Chinese investments decline. Being less able to exploit Chinese workers, and given China's increasing power, I think their status as a threat to American hegemony will increase and so will US hostility towards them. Outright war is very, very unlikely any time soon, but other forms of aggression will escalate. Also more racism.
Our capitalists are still too bound up in the Chinese economy to really want them gone, but that is steadily changing, hence the greatly increased hostility over the last few years, although I think drastic changes are still a decent way off. I've heard that a lot of investors are looking more towards Vietnam these days.
They'll be bad if the US doesn't get its shit handled. Right now the establishment of both major parties is fully in agreement on "let's have a new cold war" without recognizing that the conditions of the first one are vastly different than one with China would be. The cold war against a globally isolated USSR recovering from WW2 is a vastly different proposition than a cold war against a globally connected China that the West has been shipping their economy to for 30 years.
Unfortunately, I don't see anyone in current leadership speaking out against this new cold war.
I'm of the opinion that predicting political futures is pointless. We can never account for every variable and the current political landscape is way too unstable for anything to be said confidently.
The USA will drone bomb a Chinese cargo ship claiming it was a North Korean battle ship and then trade sanctions become dramatically worse.
