No update today or tomorrow :deeper-sadness:

Courtesy of @TacoGyrosKebabShwama, I have added some Russian and Ukrainian telegram channels to the Links and Stuff, to scratch the itch of propaganda from the Russian people, rather than propaganda from overpaid media ghouls in the west. Note that while they sometimes have good anti-imperialist and anti-West takes, they are also typically socially reactionary in regards to LGBT, and also can show combat footage, so, CW.

Links and Stuff

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Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Add to the above list if you can, thank you.


Resources For Understanding The War Beyond The Bulletins


Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map, who is an independent youtuber with a mostly neutral viewpoint.

Moon of Alabama, which tends to have good analysis (though also a couple bad takes here and there)

Understanding War and the Saker: neo-conservative sources but their reporting of the war (so far) seems to line up with reality better than most liberal sources.

Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict and, unlike most western analysts, has some degree of understanding on how war works. He is a reactionary, however.

On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent journalist reporting in the Ukrainian warzones.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.


Telegram Channels

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

Pro-Russian

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ Gleb Bazov, banned from Twitter, referenced pretty heavily in what remains of pro-Russian Twitter.

https://t.me/asbmil ~ ASB Military News, banned from Twitter.

https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.

https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday Patrick Lancaster - crowd-funded U.S journalist, mostly pro-Russian, works on the ground near warzones to report news and talk to locals.

https://t.me/riafan_everywhere ~ Think it's a government news org or Federal News Agency? Russian language.

https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ Front news coverage. Russian langauge.

https://t.me/rybar ~ Russian language.

https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.

https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.

https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense.

https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine

With the entire western media sphere being overwhelming pro-Ukraine already, you shouldn't really need more, but:

https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.

https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


Yesterday's discussion post.


  • Huldra [they/them, it/its]
    ·
    2 years ago

    The whole idea of "#Swedengate is Russian propaganda!" is so funny to me, the actual anti-Swedish propaganda Ive seen from them is like, posters that say that a famous author and a filmmaker that lived during WW2 said they would prefer Germany invading over the Soviets, and also the founder of IKEA had sympathies or something, and that makes Sweden nazi friendly.

    And now all of a sudden the propaganda is about how we don't cook food for spontaneous guests and thats why we are bad? Seriously bad propaganda if that is all they have compared to all we have done.

    • SoyViking [he/him]
      ·
      2 years ago

      Ingvar Kamprad, the founder of IKEA actually was a fascist. Wikipedia says:

      In 1994, the personal letters of the Swedish fascist Per Engdahl were made public, posthumously revealing that Kamprad had joined Engdahl's pro-fascist New Swedish Movement (Nysvenska Rörelsen) in 1942, at age 16. Kamprad had raised funds and recruited members for the group, at least as late as September 1945. When he quit the group is unknown, but he remained a friend of Engdahl until the early 1950s.

      • Commiejones [comrade/them, he/him]
        ·
        2 years ago

        Joining the Nazi party at 16 and staying involved till 19 and then quitting does not make you a fascist. It makes you stupid kid who learner better. Staying "friends" after leaving the party was probably just him trying to help his former friend climb out of a fascist conspiracy hole.

        You weren't born a communist. I bet you had some shitty ideology in your teens too. We need to celebrate Ingvar Kamprad as someone who became a better human not deride him for mistakes of young adulthood. Withholding forgiveness and second chances is petty and shortsighted.

        AFAIK IKEA is still paying it's employees in Russia and I think even still doing business.

    • cynesthesia
      ·
      edit-2
      11 months ago

      deleted by creator

      • Frank [he/him, he/him]
        ·
        2 years ago

        ehhhh that's a bit of a stretch. The Soviet Union was notorious for playing fast and loose with the truth. I vaguely remember a joke that goes "The difference between the Americans and the Soviets is that the Americans believe their propaganda"

    • userse31 [he/him]
      ·
      2 years ago

      Id say shutting off fm radio, but that was denmark.

  • ClathrateG [none/use name]
    ·
    2 years ago

    https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/v1nqb8/russian_army_on_brink_of_collapse_as_putin_loses/ supplemental cope

    • SacredExcrement [any, comrade/them]
      ·
      2 years ago

      Considering the Russian Army has been deserting en masse since the invasion started (per :reddit-logo: ), there shouldn't be anything left to collapse

      Reminiscent of those "China collapsing any day now" articles that have been getting put out since the early-mid 2000's

      • Satanic_Mills [comrade/them]
        ·
        2 years ago

        They actually all keep trying to desert at once and accidently taking territory as the Ukrainians flee the oncoming stampede of Russian conscripts.

        • SeventyTwoTrillion [he/him]
          hexagon
          M
          ·
          edit-2
          2 years ago

          The Russian conscripts share 1 gun between 20 soldiers and keep calling their parents crying that they're committing war crimes that are extremely conveniently intercepted by Ukrainian intelligence, but when they try to desert, they all try and go through the same door at the same time and they get stuck and so they can't leave Ukraine.

      • D61 [any]
        ·
        2 years ago

        Not "deserting"... "desserting".

        They all stopped for icecream cones before heading out to the front.

    • BynarsAreOk [none/use name]
      ·
      edit-2
      2 years ago

      Anyone know a good take on why they raised the age? My uninformed view is that there are economic reasons behind it, with the ruble booming this seems like a straightforward way to get older people to get an extra or just better income to stimulate the economy instead of relying on the oligarchs to be "job creators" in time of crisis.

      This is not relevant with regards to the actual war though since they have what over 1 million in reserve still and they are not even fully mobilized(something :reddit-logo: conveniently forgets).

      • Z_Poster365 [none/use name]
        ·
        2 years ago

        It’s basically a social safety net in the form of a military job guarantee, or at least creating a lot of new jobs via directed state spending. This came at the same time that Putin raised pensions 10% and can be seen as a similar policy - a material handout to the loyal older Russian population to offset any hardship from sanctions.

        If an older person lost their job due to sanctions they can still, worst case scenario, sign up for a logistical military job instead of homelessness and unemployment

      • krammaskin [none/use name]
        ·
        2 years ago

        I remember that Russia used the military as a way to occupy young unemployed men and not have them roam the streets in the 90ies. Modern military now days is as much about watching radar screens and repairing equipment as it is about marching and sitting in trenches. Age is much less of an issue and you want to be able to recruit experienced engineers and technicians.

      • D61 [any]
        ·
        2 years ago

        hmm... To add to what Z_Poster365... Older people could work in the administrative/personnel areas of the military, freeing up younger more able bodied people for duties closer to the front lines during the war and, later, during the occupation after major military operations cease.

        • Z_Poster365 [none/use name]
          ·
          2 years ago

          There’s no shortage of fresh younger personnel. I believe Russia’s reserves number in the millions and only a fraction of their active forces are even in Ukraine currently.

          While this policy does have a useful side-effect for Russia of bolstering their military further, I don’t think that’s the intent behind it. If Russia was hurting for manpower they could do a general mobilization and start sending conscripts

          • D61 [any]
            ·
            2 years ago

            Not so much as hurting (or needing) for troops now but more like preparing for the future.

            NATO isn't going to go away any time soon. And the eastern regions of Ukraine that are going to try to be autonomous areas are likely to see some terrorist attacks ramp up after the hot war part ends. At some point those regions might ask Russia for "lethal aid" of one kind or another. Best to get things rolling now instead of trying to mirror the US trying to occupy Iraq and Afghanistan with a few hundred thousand troops.

      • Frank [he/him, he/him]
        ·
        2 years ago

        I think the Russian version is that they wanted to induct civilian specialists like doctors or technicians who would otherwise be ineligible to join. The way they phrased it wasn't that they were recruiting old people to fight, but rather they were expanding the pool of experts that they could draw on. I suppose if you've been an airplane or helicopter mechanic, but you're 50, you can still do your job, but under the existing scheme you wouldn't have been eligible to join the military.

        I'd say it suggests that Russia is taking significant losses and needs to make the best use of it's available manpower, but it doesn't sound like a desperation move to keep up troop numbers.

    • Commiejones [comrade/them, he/him]
      ·
      2 years ago

      Fuck me. that's cringe. Its way to early in the morning to walk in on that. Its like a circle jerk but their just pulling lies out of their ass.

      How do they get to that point? Like they must know what they are saying is a lie that they made up but then they don't realize the other people are all lying? What do they gain by sharing lies with eachother?

  • SoyViking [he/him]
    ·
    2 years ago

    The European Union’s embargo on Russian oil will bite into the country’s export of crude — a cornerstone of the nation’s economy — but it may not do much damage until the restrictions actually kick in.

    No it won't. Westoids are not the only ones buying oil.

    Essentially the galaxy brains in the EU has decided to hurt an oil producing country by driving up oil prices.

    The only damage that will be done will be the damage to European consumers and industries who are already hurting from western kamikaze sanctions.

    • half_giraffe [comrade/them]
      ·
      2 years ago

      My favorite part about this is that it's an embargo on crude - meaning any non-EU nation with refineries can buy up Russian oil, refine it, then sell that (at a premium!) to those brave EU states participating in the embargo. Europeans have just made everything more expensive for themselves in an effort to appear like they are opposing Russia while still funding the Russian economy, lmao

  • Frank [he/him, he/him]
    ·
    2 years ago

    I've been reading up on the Interwar and WWII era Ukrainian Fascists and I'm kind of surprised Poland is going along with all this. The OUN-b, Bandera's merry band of fascists, killed tens of thousands of ethnic Poles during the war, and... well... his outfit is where Ukrainian Nationalism has it's roots. I'm sure that there are some non-Nazi Ukrainian nationalists but from what I've seen like 30% of Ukrainians view Bandera positively, and that number is heavily skewed to Western Ukraine. Like 70% of Western Ukrainians view him positively, and the number drops off sharply the further east you go. Realpolitik is a hell of a drug.

    • Yanqui_UXO [any]
      ·
      edit-2
      2 years ago

      surprised Poland is going along with all this. The OUN-b, Bandera’s merry band of fascists, killed tens of thousands of ethnic Poles during the war

      On the one hand, Poland has this phantom limb pain of the former imperialist glory in the region, and imo they go along with it because they see they can gain control of part of Ukraine that used to belong to them, and it doesn't even have to involve the immediate redrawing of borders or military action, hence we see the "special status for poles" being implemented in Ukraine now

      On the other hand, they do remember. There appeared car stickers, for example, saying "Wolyn '43 , We remember!" [ x , x , x , x].

    • comi [he/him]
      ·
      edit-2
      2 years ago

      Yea, polish still remember shukevich and bandera, when ukraine accounts do some dodgy heroes, polish people telling them to chill. Interesting how it will interact with possible polish occupation of western ukraine, but :shrug-outta-hecks:

      • Frank [he/him, he/him]
        ·
        2 years ago

        Interesting how it will interact with possible polish occupation of western ukraine

        I have a hard time seeing how the Ukrainian nationalist Right would twist themselves in to accepting that. Wouldn't that effectively be an acceptance of Ukrainian balkanization?

        • comi [he/him]
          ·
          2 years ago

          I don’t see it as well, which is why recent polish citizens in politics ukrainian law is so baffling

    • HarryLime [any]
      ·
      2 years ago

      I guess they're willing to forget all that because they hate Russia more.

  • SeventyTwoTrillion [he/him]
    hexagon
    M
    ·
    2 years ago

    A rapid-fire Dipshittery and Cope:

    • Psychology Has a Label for Putin’s KGB-Made Mind Bloomberg

    One way to think yourself into the warped mind of a despot like Russian President Vladimir Putin is to first probe into the dark recesses of your own psyche, then figure out what’s different in his. The list is long, but one cognitive snafu that’s both common and relevant is called deformation professionally.

    We use the French term not only because that language often captures things better, but also because the phrase has an embedded pun that doesn’t translate into the English “professional deformation.” Formation professionelle means vocational training. Deformation professionelle therefore refers to the tunnel vision, biases and distortions we imbibe as we become expert at whatever we do.

    • The E.U.’s embargo will bruise Russia’s oil industry, but for now it is doing fine. NYT

    The European Union’s embargo on Russian oil will bite into the country’s export of crude — a cornerstone of the nation’s economy — but it may not do much damage until the restrictions actually kick in.

    For now, analysts say, Russian oil production is proving resilient as European buyers and others snap up the opportunity to buy crude at a discount of around $30 a barrel to Brent crude, the international standard.

    • Ukraine Battle Expands as Kyiv Launches Counteroffensive NYT

    Ukrainian soldiers, seeking to spread Russian forces thin, launched a counteroffensive on Sunday in Kherson, the key southern city that Moscow considered so securely under its thumb that it had introduced the ruble.

    Ukraine’s push in Kherson came as its forces were desperately battling to hold off Russia’s efforts to conquer and cut off a strategic strip of Eastern Ukraine that is central to Moscow’s struggling war effort, and it had the effect of expanding the battlefield.

    Check the MoA article I posted in the other comment if you wanna know how that's going. Hint: not good, folks.

    • Russia or China? The U.S. Has a Choice to Make. NYT

    In a speech on Thursday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken revealed the long-awaited outlines of the Biden administration’s official posture toward China. Rather than Vladimir Putin’s Russia, Mr. Blinken said, it is China that represents the most potent and determined threat to the American-championed world order. Only China, he continued, has “both the intent to reshape the international order” and the power to do so, he said. The United States will seek to rally coalitions of other nations to meet Beijing’s challenge.

    But the intensifying fixation on China’s potential to disrupt the world order shrinks space for cooperation with Beijing and distracts from the real threat in the world: Russia.

    • For NATO, Turkey Is a Disruptive Ally NYT

    That's certainly one word for it.

    Latvian PM: ‘Russia has to lose’ Politico

    “It’s the challenge of Europe and actually the challenge of the world to persevere, and to keep the eye on the ball,” Kariņš said. “The main goal of ours has to be that Russia loses — and the other side of the coin is that Ukraine wins the war. Anything short of that means we have a very bad security situation in Europe.”

    He continued: “The only way to get a lasting peace and security is by Russia losing, because anything else that Russia does not perceive as a loss means that it’s just a way-station. So maybe the conflict slows down now … it’s frozen, as many conflicts had been in the past … and then Russia would understand, ‘hey, this worked, land grab worked, nothing really happened,’ continue to rebuild its military and move forward, whether it’s in Ukraine, or Moldova, or Georgia or Kazakhstan or elsewhere. That is what will lead to long-term instability.”

    • CTHlurker [he/him]
      ·
      2 years ago

      Fucking wild to see a Bloomberg columnist describe Putin as having tunnelvision / being in an echo chamber. At some level I think they are doing this on purpose to fuck with me, but I digress.

    • cynesthesia
      ·
      edit-2
      11 months ago

      deleted by creator

    • Huldra [they/them, it/its]
      ·
      2 years ago

      Many prosecutors, for example, will walk down a random street and, looking left and right, see people who are guilty of something, just not yet caught. Defense attorneys strolling on the same sidewalk will look around and behold human beings who are unjustly accused of something or other, and probably harassed by an overbearing inquisition.

      I know they are writing for an audience, but this is still an insultingly childish version of whatever condition they are trying to describe, "Oh prosecutors walk around seeing devil horns above everyones head because they are mean and want to put people in jail, while defense attorneys walk around seeing perfectly innocent angels because they want to help everyone".

      Viewed thus, many of Putin’s hallucinations become fathomable. The Soviet Union didn’t fall; it was pushed (by a hostile West). The “color revolutions” in former Soviet Republics weren’t primal yells for freedom by people who felt oppressed; those protesters were hired or manipulated by the CIA and other Western secret services. Ukrainians don’t want to join the European Union for its promise of prosperity, progress and liberty; they’re doing it because they’re run by Nazis whose real objective is to encircle and betray Russia and Putin.

      I remember someone in one of these threads said that these people write about russia in the format of "Putin/Russia believes (objectively true statement), (objectively true statement), [insane made up bullshit]". This seems to fit the bill, although even the last statement is broadly correct if you just adjust that the EU/Western hegemony wishes to encircle and ravage Russia, while the government of Ukraine wishes to align with this for various reasons.

      If you are an enemy of the western hegemony then assuming that everything is organized rather than spontaneous is a vastly more correct point of view than to assume that shit just happens on its own independent of your enemies and their interests.

      In Putin’s system, lying isn’t a bug, it’s a feature.

      Applies to literally every bourgeoise democracy, objectively projection to imply that any single countrys political system is uniquely built on lying.

      And while we're talking about guys with "deformation professionelle" having dangerously powerful positions, Id be way more worried about the tv actor and comedian having power with his acting-poisoned brain than someone with cold war brain being in a position of power while dealing with a new cold war.

      • Frank [he/him, he/him]
        ·
        2 years ago

        Viewed thus, many of Putin’s hallucinations become fathomable. The Soviet Union didn’t fall; it was pushed (by a hostile West). The “color revolutions” in former Soviet Republics weren’t primal yells for freedom by people who felt oppressed; those protesters were hired or manipulated by the CIA and other Western secret services. Ukrainians don’t want to join the European Union for its promise of prosperity, progress and liberty; they’re doing it because they’re run by Nazis whose real objective is to encircle and betray Russia and Putin.

        I mean... Uh... I hate to tell you, but... Wow this is awkward so a cursory study of history will reveal that...

    • ClathrateG [none/use name]
      ·
      edit-2
      2 years ago

      the main goal of ours has to be that Russia loses — and the other side of the coin is that Ukraine wins the war.

      :very-smart:

    • Frank [he/him, he/him]
      ·
      2 years ago

      I love the "Designated enemy who manages a large, populous country actually suffers from debilitating mental illnesses up to and including malign hypercognition disorder".

      Like yes, clearly the guy who stabilized Russia and managed to keep a lid on things for the last twenty or thirty years actually has a diagnosable mental illness, which we have diagnosed from great distance using our dousing rods and oracle bones. It's so fucking malicious, because the Designated Enemies actions are always couched in bogus mental health terms, while when the US or EU does it the worst they ever get accused of is "making difficult choices".

      Only China, he continued, has “both the intent to reshape the international order” and the power to do so

      This is so fucking bad. Just straight up saying "We will not tolerate another successful country and we're willing to go to war over it.

      For NATO, Turkey Is a Disruptive Ally

      It's almost like NATO accomplished it's objective but refused to disband and is now at odds with itself in a post-Soviet world.

  • cynesthesia
    ·
    edit-2
    11 months ago

    deleted by creator

  • jackal [he/him]
    ·
    edit-2
    2 years ago

    STEM moment: Statistical physics rejects theory of 'two Ukraines'

    TL;DR they ran some kind of data analytics related to Ukraine in 2021 and determined the civil war isn't happening. I might be exaggerating, just too tired to engage this critically.

    spoiler

    The key finding of their work is the theory of two Ukraines doesn't hold up against the data. Conflicts do exist within Ukraine but aren't ideologically west versus east. The researchers found these conflicts tend to form a complex network of interactions with no clear geographical boundaries.

    "Contrary to Russian discourse, we have not seen any indication of an eastern part of Ukraine being harassed by a western part," said Zanin. "This should be taken into account toward a possible resolution. The data suggest a solution involving splitting the country would be artificial and not guarantee long-term stability and peace."


    • SeventyTwoTrillion [he/him]
      hexagon
      M
      ·
      2 years ago

      Yep, I've run the models, plugged in the deficiencies of the Russian brainpan compared to the superior Ukrainian one, carry the two, and... yep. There isn't a west-east divide in Ukraine, and we've scientifically proved that the last 8 years of the war against the Donbas has not actually occurred.

      I'm getting increasingly concerned that maybe westerners actually are in an alternate reality. Like, not just propaganda melting their brains, but two parallel universes joined together at the hip, and they're in the one where Ukraine is uniformly united and is repelling the Russians, while we're in what we perceive to be the real reality. Sounds like a :matt: theory, just gotta add the words "demiurge", "ritualized", and "and this is the important part".

      • notceps [he/him]
        ·
        2 years ago

        Nah this is literally just STEM nerds being paid to do STEM nerd think tank shit. Pay off some dumbasses to do some "science" so that the institute for lethal aid can point at it and say "See? The SCIENCE agrees with us we should fund the Ukraine, look at the SCIENCE" because those nerds then get paid to do this shit they think what they do is actually valuable and a lot of them get the smart idea of just applying their field to various other fields.

        Source: I listened to a physics long winded explanation why a squat is really just two levers. Said person didn't even know that biomechanics was a field but was certain they could explain everything.

      • Commiejones [comrade/them, he/him]
        ·
        2 years ago

        I’m getting increasingly concerned that maybe westerners actually are in an alternate reality. Like, not just propaganda melting their brains, but two parallel universes joined together at the hip, and they’re in the one where Ukraine is uniformly united and is repelling the Russians, while we’re in what we perceive to be the real reality.

        This is a solid theory. It makes only slightly less sense than all western media and governments all being hopelessly delusional/in denial. Maybe all the lethal aid from both dimensions is going to just to one dimension's Ukraine and that is why they are winning over there? (or here? I don't know which dimension I'm in.)

    • Z_Poster365 [none/use name]
      ·
      2 years ago

      contrary to Russian discourse, we have not seen any indication of an eastern part of Ukraine being harassed by a western part

      Oh did the 8 years of shelling, sniper practice and white phosphorous pumped into Eastern Ukraine not tip them off? No banning of Russian language? What about when the President of Ukraine proudly exclaiming that “our children will go to school, while their children hide in basements”?

    • SoyViking [he/him]
      ·
      2 years ago

      "The free worldand many others" — What a beautiful example of the condescending view westoids have of the imperial periphery.

  • SeventyTwoTrillion [he/him]
    hexagon
    M
    ·
    edit-2
    2 years ago

    Europe’s Partial Russian Oil Ban Is Flawed, But Necessary Bloomberg

    European Union leaders have finally agreed to ban most Russian oil imports, paving the way for a sixth package of sanctions aimed at eroding the Kremlin’s capacity to fund its brutal war in Ukraine. It’s an imperfect solution that comes late, makes multiple concessions that draw out timing and caves to Hungary’s demands for exemptions. Sanctioning gas, where infrastructure ties Russia far more tightly to European purchases, remains off the table. It’s a vital step forward nonetheless.

    ...

    None of this should take away from what is still a significant achievement, almost unthinkable just months ago. An energy embargo, even an imperfect one, is painful for the Kremlin immediately — and is an important signal of intent. This one, if pledges from Germany and Poland to wean themselves off pipeline oil are fulfilled, should cover 90% of Russian oil imports into Europe by the end of the year.

    The effects on the markets for oil and, in particular, oil products could be dramatic. Russia is by some margin the largest net exporter of petroleum products in the world (the US, whose gross volumes are larger, derives much of its exports from refining other countries’ crude). European imports of Russian diesel account for about a fifth of global trade in that product. Almost all of that will be shut down in a matter of months. Futures contracts for European diesel, which averaged $630 a metric ton over the past decade, are currently changing hands at about twice that. Inventories in western Europe’s oil trading hub are at levels last seen in a sustained way in 2008, when Brent crude prices peaked at $146 a barrel.

    A repeat isn’t impossible this time around. Brent is already trading at $123. In the event of an embargo similar to the one we’re now seeing, it could hit $150 by July, the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies estimated earlier this month. That’s likely to squeeze diesel-dependent European heavy industry that’s already struggling with high prices, as well driving further inflation and enhancing the appeal of electric and hybrid vehicles that now make up nearly half of the continent’s passenger car sales.

    In the short term, it’s feasible that Europe will get hurt, while Russia benefits from higher prices. The long term picture, however, looks far more challenging for Moscow. It cannot simply turn off supply temporarily without consequences, and sanctions on maritime insurance will prove nearly impossible to circumvent, given specialists operate largely in Europe, the US and allied nations, choking oil trade.

    Yes, gas is absent. Russia is the biggest exporter of gas and Europe is its biggest customer, and it’s true that other than shelving Nordstream 2 pipeline, Europe has shied away from restricting imports, which Russia would have found it harder to work around. It may still have to turn to Russia to fill underground gas storage before winter. All problematic, no question.

    But there’s encouragement to be found here. The wider package includes other irritants, like removing more banks, including Sberbank, Russia's largest, from the SWIFT payments system. Sanctions have a patchy record of getting states to change their behavior — especially authoritarian governments involved in activities they perceive as core national interests — but the aim is now clearly to isolate and drain the Kremlin’s financial wellsprings. Despite a lofty ruble, propped up by capital controls, and a chunky current account surplus, measures imposed by Brussels, Washington and partners are already working.

    VERSUS

    EU Continues to Try to Hurt Russia by Shooting Itself in the Foot Naked Capitalism

    For the details: this sixth package gets the EU its much-sought-after embargo of Russian oil, although it’s only a partial embargo, thanks to prime minister Viktor Orban acting like a bad Hungarian populist rather than a good European. Orban threatened to veto a full-bore embargo since all of Hungary’s oil comes via the Druzhba pipeline. By contrast, most of the EU’s oil comes by tanker, which as we’ve pointed out and Alexander Mercouris has confirmed, allows for Russian oil to still come to Europe via out and out laundering through cut-outs and mixing with non-Russian source product, albeit at a higher cost. So landlocked countries on a Russian pipeline can’t cheat while the others can. So after weeks of wrangling, the EU relented and voted through the Hungarian scheme.

    ...

    If you think the EU will really, truly, will have cut its imports of Russian oil by 90% in a few months, I have a bridge I’d like to sell you. And yet more sanctioning of individuals is a sign that the EU is hitting the bottom of the barrel.

    So how can the EU be so blind? Have they really convinced themselves that Russia is teetering on the verge of economic disaster despite evidence to the contrary, like the estimates of the GDP fall for 2022 being lowered slightly as export substitution is ahead of schedule, or the central bank again cutting interest rates? How about the fact that shops have plenty of food, food prices aren’t appreciating much, and ordinary Russians aren’t seeing signs of hardship (as in going without European goods and vacations do not make a crisis)? Yes, there may be some reductions in living standards in some sectors, but even to the extent that there are some costs, they are trivial compared to the 1990s…and here Russian overwhelmingly see their national survival at stake. Oh, and Putin just raised pensions by 10%. That arguably just represents an inflation catch-up but it’s a sign that the government has room to maintain social safety nets.

    Maybe readers can make sense of the EU’s commitment to its self destruction, but I sure can’t. And given how long it take for governments to be voted out, it looks very likely that Europe will inflict permanent damage on itself and its citizens before regime chage takes place.

    • Frank [he/him, he/him]
      ·
      edit-2
      2 years ago

      This is so bizarre. Russia and the EU are writing each other checks with one hand and stabbing the shit out of each other with the other hand.

      and here Russian overwhelmingly see their national survival at stake.

      I've been reading up on WWII atrocities and it's a very stark reminder that the Allies basically had a lovely picnic in France while the Soviets were engaged in absolute hell on earth like nothing the world has ever seen. A nation having Nazis in it's formal government structures is a red flag. A nation having open, avowed Nazis formally integrated in to the military is a flare visible from Space, especially given that Ukrainian nationalism still lionizes UON-b figures as heroes while ignoring or denying their participation in ethnic pogroms, Nazi collaborations, and postwar insurgency.

      Add to that all the Eastern European countries taking down statues. Taking down Statues of Lenin or Stalin? Sure, whatever, Stalin was an asshole, it's understandable people would have bad feelings of him and not want to see his face everywhere. But taking down the monuments to Soviet soldiers who liberated Europe from the Nazi? That sends a very clear message to everyone involved.

      • Dingus_Khan [he/him, comrade/them]
        ·
        edit-2
        2 years ago

        Allies basically had a lovely picnic in France while the Soviets were engaged in absolute hell on earth like nothing the world has ever seen.

        Thought this recently while watching Operation Mincemeat. If you took every soldier under arms in Sicily on both sides, that's approximately how many Nazi casualties the Red Army was inflicting at the same time the British were hemming and hawing about a second front. Even Churchill himself admitted that the Red Army "tore the guts out of the German war machine" at Kursk

    • SoyViking [he/him]
      ·
      2 years ago

      measures imposed by Brussels, Washington and partners are already working

      How?

      Not by bringing Russia to the edge of defeat.

      Not by slowing the Russian war machine down.

      Not by bringing Russia to the negotiating table (they would be the only ones there though).

      Not by formenting regime change in Russia, either through a palace or a colour revolution.

      Not by souring Russian relations to partners like India or China.

      Exactly what are these kamikaze sanctions doing that makes it worth sacrificing the economic well-being of hundreds of millions of working class Europeans?

  • SoyViking [he/him]
    ·
    2 years ago

    What's in it for European elites?

    The sanctions seems to be hurting nobody but the west, Europe in particular. You can sort of see why the yanks would like Europe to decouple from Russia and be completely dependent on Washington politically and economically.

    But why do European elites commit these acts of self-harm so eagerly? They get hurt by the energy and supply crisis as well but seems to reap none of the benefits.

    Are they so afraid of the Russian bogeyman that they want to sacrifice everything to keep the asiatic hordes at bay? This doesn't make sense, you have to be blind not to see how the sanctions are not making any significant dents in the Russian war effort. Are they still high on pure ideology, and how long can that high last?

    • comi [he/him]
      ·
      2 years ago

      Just raise prices :think-about-it: why would elites be hurting? They arent afraid of rebellion, europe hasn’t had one for 50-100 years. Spending money on armament is good for your career in think tanks

    • zeal0telite [he/him,they/them]
      ·
      2 years ago

      Europe is beholden to US interests.

      Nothing else matters. These freaks are fully ideological, no material analysis goes into this at all.

      US = good

      Russia = bad

      These guys will tank everything to adhere to that.

      • Z_Poster365 [none/use name]
        ·
        2 years ago

        At a certain point their societies will collapse and stop functioning until they stop acting like this

        • zeal0telite [he/him,they/them]
          ·
          2 years ago

          I just wonder at what point it clicks that they're getting absolutely fuck all from this deal.

          I also wonder who it'll click for first, the elites or the people?

          • Z_Poster365 [none/use name]
            ·
            2 years ago

            Obviously the people. 25% in Germany and UK are already calling their economic situation dire and saying they live hand to mouth. That will only grow.

    • notceps [he/him]
      ·
      2 years ago

      The elites never get hurt by this if anything they'll do what they've been doing for centuries use this crisis to further their interest, as far as the political elites you got the mix of red scare, idealism and just plain old racism that pushes them to chose to do this.

    • Huldra [they/them, it/its]
      ·
      2 years ago

      I think they probably believe that if they back off now they'll be in a significantly worse position compared to Russia and therefore its a bit of a sunk cost thing going on, maybe.

      • Z_Poster365 [none/use name]
        ·
        2 years ago

        A lot of the most cringe European moves have been by relative political newcomers such as Scholz in Germany and Marin in Finland. I doubt there’s much Epstein-like leverage on them, but perhaps. It seems to be the Green radlibs and neocons who are really getting crazy with it. The greens are outsiders who have coalition leverage purely by fluke of timing, and they have been the most idealistically zealous in the anti-Russia sanction crusade. Neocon ghouls are definitely all in the baby eating cabal though

  • SeventyTwoTrillion [he/him]
    hexagon
    M
    ·
    2 years ago

    Some articles to get this thread started:

    • The Biden Administration Is in No Rush to Help Ukraine Negotiate an End to the War Jacobin

    Almost all knowledgeable observers believe the war in Ukraine will have to end with a negotiated agreement. Yet the US, Ukraine's leading patron, has signaled it has no patience for diplomatic efforts that cut against its hope for Moscow's "strategic defeat."

    • Turkey’s War Against the Kurds Exposes NATO’s Aggression Jacobin

    With all eyes on the war in Ukraine, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is planning a fresh invasion of northern Syria. For 70 years, Turkey has been a key NATO member — and NATO's backing for its aggression shows the alliance is no mere defense pact.

    • Ukraine Bits: Russian Artillery - Counter Attacks - New Missile Systems MoA

    The amount of copium available for Ukraine fans seems to be dwindling.

    More mainstream media now report on the huge damage the Russian artillery is causing to the Ukrainian frontline troops. Even the New York Times joined in:

    Under the fire of Russia’s long-range arsenal and facing a desperate need for ammunition and weapons, Ukrainian forces remain outgunned on the long and pockmarked eastern front, according to military analysts, Ukrainian officials and soldiers on the ground.

    Just one engagement on Thursday and Friday on a small swath of the line, in a forest north of the town of Sloviansk, sent about a dozen Ukrainian soldiers to a military hospital with harrowing shrapnel wounds.

    “You ask how the fighting is going,” said Oleksandr Kolesnikov, the commander of a company of soldiers fighting in the forest, interviewed on an ambulance gurney outside a military hospital in Kramatorsk. “There was a commander of the company. He was killed. There was another commander. He was killed. A third commander was wounded. I am the fourth.”

    After for months hyping Ukrainian victories that had never happened 'western' headlines now finally acknowledge the real state of the war

    The write ups about supreme Russian artillery quoted above are of course in support of the U.S. intent to send multiple rocket launcher (HIMARS) to Ukraine. These can, in theory, fire on targets from up to 300 kilometer away. However, Ukraine would only get ammunition for significantly shorter ranges of about 30 km [...] With 300 kilogram each missile has significant weight. A truck with HIMARS can carry 6 of those while a tracked vehicle version carries 12. Resupplying these in significant numbers will be a logistic nightmare.

    • U.S. Gasoline Prices Surge To New Record High On Memorial Day OilPrice

    • Saudi Arabia Set To Raise Its Oil Prices To Asia OilPrice

    • Washington’s Attempts to Approach Riyadh have So Far Failed to Produce Results NEO

    • EU Set To Agree On Russia Oil Embargo With Pipeline Exemption OilPrice

    • How The EU Plan To Ban Russian Oil Could Cause Stagflation OilPrice

    • West Bank: Israeli Police Leaves 219 Palestinians Injured TeleSUR

    • D61 [any]
      ·
      2 years ago

      Downside to increasing the range of Ukrainian artillery capabilities, it will give Russian forces reason to fire farther behind Ukranian combat lines to take them out. More damage to any nearby civil infrastructure (because I doubt Ukraine would risk deploying them away from civilian areas) from Russian counter strikes.

  • Fartster [comrade/them]
    ·
    2 years ago

    My first and only comment on r/worldnews that got me permanently banned:

    These subs are run by the US state dept. Not joking, not hyperbole. This website is western propaganda.

  • JamesGoblin [he/him]
    ·
    2 years ago

    "The Armed Forces of Ukraine are seriously engaged in equipping fortifications around Kiev [!!] in case of an expected offensive by Russian troops. They understand that the defeat in Donbass is already close, and the Russian army can move deep into Ukraine." https://t.me/intelslava/30463

    Basically: once the fort falls, you just run across the meadows behind.

    • ThirdEye [any]
      ·
      2 years ago

      Another Kiev offensive doesn't make sense for Russia, the only possible non-Novorossiya movement is a limited offensive towards Sumy I think. The next step post-Donbass will probably be what remains of Zaporizhzhia and maybe Mykolaiv if Russians are really into the Novorossiya thing

        • JamesGoblin [he/him]
          ·
          2 years ago

          I am coming from totally opposite direction, I don't see how Russia stops earlier than Polish border - maybe only if Ukies surrender unconditionally [or anything similar] + make huge terrotorial concessions [that will very likely include Odessa and much more] and allow Russian military bases / strategic missiles on their remaining territory!?

          Otherwise the Nazi/NATO problem is not solved strategically, and 1)that is unacceptable & 2)there is nothing in sight or even foreseable future that could stop the logical development of the SMO.

    • Frank [he/him, he/him]
      ·
      2 years ago

      Yeah, if Ukraine runs out of troops, or morale, or key materiel before the Russians do then the Russians will have free reign over the country and it's down to seeing who really feels motivated to fight an insurgency.