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European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has accused Russia of trying to “blackmail” the European Union with its energy resources but said the bloc was “prepared” for Moscow’s move to curtail gas supplies to member states Poland and Bulgaria.

Her remarks came after Russia’s state energy giant, Gazprom, earlier said it had halted all gas supplies to Bulgaria and Poland after not receiving payment in roubles from the two countries for its exports.

TIL that it's blackmail when someone doesn't give you a resource after you stopped paying them for it.

One of my better frieds/roommates has a tumor behind his heart and is too weak for a biopsy let alone surgery due to li g term opiate addiction/copd which he got during his 17 year prison stay for robbing banks way back. He got the death penalty, it just took longer. Fuck the police.

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It's time to play... Will There Be A Recession*! It's your host... nah I'm not actually gonna do a whole 7DeadlyFetishes thing don't worry lol

* in the next year or two.

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On the side of "Yes there will/It's at least somewhat likely", we have:

• A major recession is coming, Deutsche Bank warns

Deutsche Bank raised eyebrows earlier this month by becoming the first major bank to forecast a US recession, albeit a "mild" one. Now, it's warning of a deeper downturn caused by the Federal Reserve's quest to knock down stubbornly high inflation. ""We will get a major recession," Deutsche Bank economists wrote in a report to clients on Tuesday.

• JPMorgan CEO warns of ‘powerful forces’ threatening U.S. economy into a recession

Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, Dimon said that the ongoing war in Ukraine, high inflation, and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance on monetary policy could combine to significantly increase the chances of a recession.

• Jeremy Grantham, Ray Dalio, and other elite investors are pounding the alarm on the Russia-Ukraine crisis.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues to rattle financial markets and disrupt the global economy. Several top-flight investors have weighed in on the crisis, warning it could worsen inflation, plunge the US economy into recession, and even transform the world order.

• The Slower the Fed, the Harder the Landing

When will the recession happen? My best guess: Probably not this year, more likely in 2023 or 2024. And the later the downturn comes, the worse it will be.

• Britain could fall into recession this summer, say experts

Britain’s economy is at growing risk of falling into a summer recession amid the biggest squeeze on household incomes since the mid 1950s, as soaring inflation curtails consumer spending power, forecasters have said.

• Will The Fed Cause A Recession? What You Need To Know

Monetary inflation could be curbed if the Fed would reduce its bloated money supply and stabilize the value of the dollar. Instead, our central bank wants to slow the economy and jack-up unemployment. That’s the wrong prescription—and it’s why an unnecessary recession looms.

• Mohamed El-Erian says 'humbled' Fed needs skill, time and luck to engineer a soft landing after Powell touts half-point hike

Economist Mohamed El-Erian said the Federal Reserve's big steps to tame inflation may be too late and could risk a recession in the US.

• Dow falls 800 points on recession fears

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On the side of "No there won't/It's unlikely", we have:

• America Inc. Isn’t Worrying and ‘Strong Recovery’: Resilient Consumers Ease U.S. Recession Worry

American chief executives aren’t yet subscribing to fears that red-hot inflation will ultimately tip the economy into recession. Weeks after Wall Street banks kicked off earnings season by saying household finances were in good shape, Main Street firms are lining up to express confidence in the U.S. consumer even as price pressures mount, according to this story from Olivia Rockeman, Reade Pickert and Vildana Hajric.

Corporate executives are touting the strength of U.S. consumers in the face of surging inflation, assuaging mounting fears of recession.

• 3 charts that explain why the US isn't on the brink of a recession

• Recession Predictions Are Piling Up. Don’t Freak Out.

What makes this time different from any other is the relatively strong financial position of the average household. Any discussion about inflation and the negative effects on the economy and consumers needs to start with excess savings. The generous social programs instituted by the U.S. government to support the economy through the Covid-19 pandemic allowed consumers to build up an amazingly high cash cushion.

The odds of a recession are 35%, says one of Biden’s favorite economists

• The world may dodge another recession. But risks are growing.

• Bank of Italy’s Visco Says Recession in Italy Unlikely

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On the side of "Maybe, I guess?" or some other qualified view, we have:

• A recession is likely in 2023, but the hot housing market should cushion the blow

• Europe Faces Higher Recession Risks Than U.S.A.

“If a recession does materialize, it is more likely to do so in Europe than in the US,” states a recent report from London based consulting firm Capital Economics.

• War, Inflation and Politics Put Europe at Greater Recession Risk

Over the past couple of months, everyone has been talking about the potential for a recession in the U.S. While this isn’t a negligible risk as I explained earlier, there is a region that’s closer to the proverbial precipice. Europe is both weaker economically and more vulnerable to an exogenous shock.

• Ban on Russian gas would plunge Germany into recession, warns Bundesbank

• How a Recession Might — and Might Not — Happen

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Also, fuck FiveThirtyEight!

• Were The Stimulus Checks A Mistake?

Yup as expected everyone has more or less do forgotten about the Ukraine war. Even complete media backing of Ukraine and blanket coverage had no chance of changing that. Ukraine got played by the NATO countries and Zelensky is a dumbass. Russia was insane to invade but this is not turning out as bad for them as I thought. They are cut off to a degree from the global economy but so much of the global economy is just pie in the sky bullshit it doesn't matter as much since they can meet their food and energy needs independently (although not being able to import high tech goods will have an impact)

Am I wrong in thinking that the goal of the West re RU is to prevent it from ever becoming a prosperous, fully-functional nation? There is literally nothing RU could do to get fair treatment and be welcomed into the fold.

A lesson was learned from China's rise. A strong, healthy Russia must be the thing of nightmares for the cold warrior set. The West still holds a grudge over 1917.

I have come to a very unsettling conclusion regarding the mass banning of Russian literature like Doestoevsky. It's not a hysterical reaction by the masses, but a calculated long term strategic initiative to "otherise" Russia as an alien place. When students study such literature they develop affinities for Russian culture and many will eventually travel to these places and develop friendships with Russia.

Short and sweet, Ukrainian Nazi mocking westerners supporting them lol.

Something something they know exactly what they are doing, TL;DR shows his swastika and sings nazi song at the end.

ruble reached a 2 year high against the Dollar today... (73)

US won't rule out military action if China establishes base in Solomon Islands

Will that military action perchance be in the form of a special military operation?

Pissrealis are chanting "slava ukraini" while in stolen Palestinian lands, while also giving guns to literal anti-semites. The irony isn't lost. Also olodymyr elensky said he wants to turn Ukraine into another Isnotreal.

:lmayo: nations are mad at South Africa for not giving aid or manpower to Ukraine.

I also made a guy from Nigeria angry on Quora when I mentioned the double standards wrt Ukraine vs. Palestine/Yemen/Syria, etc. How ironic. Simping for 2 of the countries that hate you the most.

:ukkkraine:

Its so fucking infuriating how twitter morons will buy literally anything a ukraine account says with no critical thinking.

"Oh ukraine has been watched for over 8 years by so many international orgs and no one has documented any war crimes from Azov" is an actual tweet people are listening to, but you can literally just go over to the website for UNs human rights office and they have dozens of reports, sometimes several per year, of documented incidents in the civil war.

You can just go there, they're packaged in lovely pdfs, and just wordsearch azov and find like "Woman was arbitrarily detained by Azov militants, assaulted physically, had false confessions extracted from her, suffered sexual abuse and humiliation as militants took photos of her naked bruised body, was handed off to SBU officers who further beat her for several days before letting her go, inquiry started with SBU as to behavior of their officers"(paraphrased from actual incident I skimmed).

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-halted-gas-supplies-poland-152059894.html

Bruh what the fuck is Bulgaria doing????? You get 90% of your gas from Russia you can't just say "yeah we're not paying".

What the fuck is wrong with these countries? Do they think ideals will change the material realities that they live in? Have they seriously snorted their own farts so hard that they've come to believe that?

It will be a week before literally all industry in the country grinds to a halt in order to keep houses powered. It will be 2-4 weeks before all houses also lose power, by then absolutely massive protests will have formed over the entirety of industry shutting down and nobody having a job to go to.

These countries are fucking suicidal what the fuck are they thinking. Poland is less-so since they get 40% of their gas from Russia but it's still absolutely bonkers for them to be doing this too.

Both countries are going to go to shit within the next month if a RADICAL solution doesn't happen within literal days.

Guy walking down the middle of the road in my town with a sign that reads "We are sleepwalking into nuclear war"

:chad: